Emotional Responses to Obama as Muslim

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1 Emotional Responses to Obama as Muslim David P. Redlawsk Department of Political Science and Eagleton Institute of Politics Rutgers University New Brunswick, NJ Caroline J. Tolbert Department of Political Science University of Iowa Iowa City, IA Matt A. Barreto Department of Political Science University of Washington WORKING DRAFT, DO NOT CITE WITHOUT AUTHORS PERMISSION NOTE: THIS IS, AS SUGGESTED BY THE PHRASE WORKING DRAFT, AN UNFINISHED WORKING PAPER DESIGNED TO LAY OUT SOME EMPIRICAL FINDINGS AS A BASIS FOR DISCUSSION. IT IS BY NO MEANS A FINISHED PAPER; INCLUDING A LACK OF REFERENCES AND A LESS THAN FULLY DEVELOPED THEORETICAL BASIS. IN SOME SENSE IT IS INTERESTING DATA IN SEARCH OF AN OVERARCHING THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVE. 1

2 One in five Americans thinks Obama is Muslim screamed the headlines in August 2010 after the release of a poll by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life (Pew, 2010). The survey one of a continuing series by Pew found that when asked about President Barack Obama s religion, 18 percent said he is Muslim, while only 34 percent identified him correctly as Christian. Both numbers represented a substantial change from 2008 and 2009 Pew surveys, where 11 to 12 percent had called Obama Muslim, and nearly half said he is Christian. Perhaps even more astounding than the 18 percent who think Obama is Muslim, is that 40 percent do not even try to answer the question, a number that has grown along with belief that he is Muslim. Why has belief that Obama is Muslim grown? Certainly people have not become less knowledgeable about the president during his first two years in office. Instead, perhaps there is a pool of latent belief that has become activated more recently maybe in response to the Mosque controversy in NYC. Americans certainly do not have the same level of positive feelings toward Muslims that they do for most other widely held religious beliefs. The 2008 CCAP internet survey found if very acceptable to be expressly anti-muslim, with 39% of respondents saying they feel unfavorable towards Muslims, while on 12% gave a favorable response and 39% placed themselves in the neutral category. Where might these latent beliefs be hidden? A likely place is in the don t know responses to questions about Obama s religion. Since March 2008 the series of Pew Surveys found between 32 and 43 percent of respondents say they don t know what Obama s religion is and another 2-3 percent refuse to answer the question. And while the number has grown in the recent survey, that does not mean that some of the previous don t knows haven t moved to believing the story of Obama as Muslim. 2

3 We examine the existence of such a pool of voters by looking back to a 2008 national survey in which we asked questions about Obama s religion, affective and policy responses to him, and included a framing experiment where we manipulated whether voters saw Obama as Muslim or Black (versus a control). We look at both those who say Obama is Muslim, as well as those who do not venture an answer, and we compare those with the incorrect responses to similar responses to John McCain and perceptions of his religion. The question is whether we can find affective determinants of viewing Obama as Muslim which may lay at the core of beliefs of those who do think Obama is Muslim as well as those in the don t know category. If affect can help us distinguish those who correctly say Obama is Christian from other voters, then perhaps we can find emotional responses to Obama at the base of beliefs that he is other than Christian. What we find is that feeling afraid of Obama and feeling hopeful about him both allow us to discriminate between accurate perceptions of his religion and inaccurate ones. Fear increases the likelihood that respondents will say Obama is Muslim, while hope decreases the likelihood. Neither anxiety nor enthusiasm has similar effects. Moreover, both fear and hope predict those who don t know Obama s religion. In a parallel analysis predicting McCain s religion, these emotions have no effects. When we remove respondents who overtly express the belief that Obama will favor Blacks over whites, fear remains a strong (and the only) predictor of believing Obama is Muslim. Finally, we take advantage of our framing experiment to show that while framing Obama as Muslim increases negative affect for those who agree with the frame, framing him as Black fails to cause any affective response different from the control group. 3

4 Measuring Race, Religion and Emotions The unique fact of Obama s race was impossible to miss during the 2008 campaign, of course, making direct appeals to race as a reason to oppose him unnecessary even for those who might be tempted. Recognizing the potential implicit use of race in the campaign, Obama famously told a gathering in Missouri in late July 2008 that [w]hat they re going to try to do is make you scared of me. You know, he doesn t look like all those other presidents on the dollar bills a charge the McCain campaign denied and in fact turned on Obama suggesting it was he who was playing the race card. The question of Obama s Muslim-ness however was a topic for conversation, fed by opponents who both spoke of it openly (cites to Fox News, etc ) as well as those who used it in more sub silentio ways, by referring to Obama s heritage or even circulating pictures of him dressed in Kenyan robes. A good deal of work exists on racial cues and politics, while less seems available in terms of religion and its effects. Valentino, Hutchins and White (2002) use an experiment to test whether subtle racial cues embedded in political advertisements prime racial attitudes as predictors of candidate preference by making them more accessible in memory. Results show that a number of implicit race cues can prime racial attitudes and that cognitive accessibility mediates the effect. They also find counter-stereotype cues especially those implying blacks are deserving of government resources reduce racial priming, suggesting that the meaning drawn from the visual/narrative pairing in an advertisement, and not simply the presence of black images, triggers the effect. While in recent years white voters have been more willing to vote for Blacks running for public office (Sigelman et al. 1995; Terkildsen 1993), race has still been found to be a major 4

5 obstacle for minority candidates, especially in the South (Giles and Buckner 1993; Glaser 1994; Valentino and Sears 2005). More generally, an experiment conducted by Terkildsen (1993) using fictional candidates found substantial evidence of discrimination by white respondents. Both feeling thermometers and vote choice were significantly lower for Black candidates when compared to the white candidates with the same political backgrounds. Sigelman et al. (1995) find that whites are more likely to question the competence of liberal minority candidates in an experimental setting. On the other hand, religious appeals may not be burdened by the same sense of social desirability that racial appeals face. Thus we should not be surprised to see both implicit and explicit religious appeals. In the 2008 presidential campaign the mass media and negative campaign ads used implicit claims, intentionally or unintentionally, by showing images of Obama with his former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Jr., who gave sermons praising the Muslim faith. Images were also shown of Obama as a youth growing up in Indonesia, a mostly Muslim nation, and with family members wearing turbans. At the same time, direct claims about Obama s supposed Muslim sympathies appeared in a number of sources. 1 Countering the Muslim framing was so important that Obama made emphasizing his Christian religion a key point of the campaign. While some people will admit to racial or religious bias (as America s first Catholic president John Kennedy faced in the 1960s Sniderman et al. 2009), most attempts to directly ask about race become trapped by social desirability effects, where respondents report what they expect the interviewer wishes to hear or whatever they think is socially acceptable rather than what they truly believe (Berinsky 1999; 2002). Berinsky argues the difference between privately 1 For example, Insight, then an online unit of the Washington Times, published an article claiming Obama had been taught in a radical Muslim school as a child. All links to this article and subsequent articles in Insight now resolve to the Washington Times website, 5

6 held beliefs and public responses may be a result of the desire to cloak attitudes that society as a whole might deem unacceptable for fear of social sanctions. It is plausible that under circumstances where respondents fear they might be `censured' or socially shunned for their attitudes they might shade those attitudes when reporting them to the interviewer (1999, 1211). 2 Social desirability effects have been revealed not only in reference to racial attitudes (Berinsky 1999; 2002; Gilens, Sniderman, and Kuklinski 1998; Kuklinski, Cobb, and Gilens 1997; Kuklinski et al ; Sniderman, Crosby, and Howell 2000; Hutchins 2010), as well as over-reporting of voter turnout (Karp and Brockington 2005). Because of social acceptability bias, especially in telephone or in-person surveys, researchers have looked for other ways to examine the effects of race. One is to approach things like Sniderman and Stiglitz (2009) who make use of techniques like implicit association tests (IAT), examining people s non-conscious reactions to stimuli that include both Black and white faces. Others have turned to list experiments (Gilens, Sniderman, and Kuklinski 1998; Kuklinski, Cobb, and Gilens 1997; Kuklinski et al. 1997; Sniderman, Crosby, and Howell 2000; Redlawsk, Tolbert, and Franko 2010) which rely on comparisons between sub-samples that receive a particular stimulus and those that do not. Emotion and Politics Emotional responses to any candidate run the gamut from strongly positive to strongly negative, often depending on one s overall evaluation of the candidate. Voters who feel positively disposed towards a candidate are certainly more likely tor eport positive affective responses to that candidate, while those who have an overall negative evaluation will likely be 2 Berinsky provides evidence of this effect in responses toward support for school integration, showing that attitudes in favor of integration were significantly biased. 6

7 more negative in specific affect as well. A developing literature on the affective basis of political evaluations has posited many different perspectives, including Marcus and colleagues Affective Intelligence theory (AI) where a dual emotional system both acts in surveillance of the environment and to (under certain conditions especially rising anxiety) activate deeper processing of incoming stimuli when unexpectedly different from and potentially dangerous. Under AI theory applied to politics, anxiety generates efforts to learn and understand the cause, while the positive emotion of enthusiasm motivates involvement. AI s take on fear an aversive emotion is somewhat less clear, though Marcus, et al (2006) make clear that aversive emotions should be measured. If aversion is present, they argue, it will show independently of anxiety, but if it is not present it will stand in for (and collapse with) anxiety. From this we suspect that fear is likely to matter in evaluations of Obama, as much because he represents something different in American politics simply by his race, and that which is different may be fear-provoking. Moreover, as we noted earlier, Americans have negative feelings towards Muslims; to the extent that Obama is viewed as Muslim, fear may be one of the factors in driving that view. Another perspective on affective response is that of motivated reasoning (Kunda, 19xx; Redlawsk, 2002; Lodge and Taber 2006; Redlawsk, Civettini, and Emmerson, 2010.) Here affect is thought to condition responses to new information, so that people resist updating evaluations base don information incongruent to their existing preferences. Thus new negative information about a liked figure instead of resulting in a lowered evaluation, generates resistance that might include bolstering the existing evaluation. Redlawsk, Civettini and Emmerson (2010) show that this process also appears to increase anxiety as greater amounts of incongruent information are encountered. At a certain tipping point anxiety may result in activation of AI processes, and 7

8 more accurate updating. While not shown by Redlawsk, et al, it may be that such processes work for disliked targets as well, so that accurate, but affectively incongruent information (such as that Obama is Protestant) may not result in correction of misinformation, but instead an increased tendency to hold one s ground. In the context of the increasing beliefs that Obama is Muslim, this process could be a combination of greater negative evaluations of Obama over time, creating an increased likelihood of accepting inaccurate information that is congruent with dislike for Obama that is, belief that he practices a religion many Americans find suspect. Increasing belief that Obama is Muslim might lead to increasing fear of Obama; or perhaps increased dislike of Obama may also raise levels of fear about what might happen under his presidency which may also increase acceptance of fear-congruent but inaccurate beliefs. When it comes to Obama all of this may well be complicated by race. That Obama is black may lead to unspoken fears about him; unspoken because to speak negatively about race is not acceptable in current society. Yet findings of fear about Obama even if related to perceptions of his religion may really be about deep seated latent racial attitudes. Redlawsk, Tolbert, and Franko (forthcoming) show such effects in a list experiment in which 30 percent of respondents appear to be troubled by the idea of Obama as the first black president. Others have shown the Obama s race my have been both a blessing (cites) and a curse (cites) in his run for the White House. Even so, it may well be possible to distinguish between responses to Obama as Black and Obama as Muslim, and if we can do so, we may have a better understanding of the role that his supposed Muslimness plays in evaluations of the president. 8

9 Expectations We are interested in trying to disentangle emotional responses to Obama as Muslim from responses to Obama as Black. It is possible that Obama s purported Muslimness is a new way for those opposed to Obama to talk about him without fear of being attacked for racism. Yet it may be that Muslim is a new code for Black. Or it may be that belief about Obama as Muslim has an independent effect on affective responses to Obama from whatever racial attitudes may exist. 9

10 Data & Methods Our data come from a national random sample telephone survey of registered voters fielded in the month before the 2008 general election, from October 1, 2008 through November 2. 3 A total of 1,666 interviewers were completed and the survey included many of the traditional questions related to voter attitudes usually found on such surveys. Some of our data come from a survey experiment framing beliefs about then-candidate Barack Obama. The experiment was embedded in the latter half of the survey, after questions were asked about voting intention, political knowledge and participation, and awareness of various media stories about the election. Included in these initial questions were two questions for both Republican John McCain and Obama asking if their policies would likely favor different groups. One question asked about favoring rich over poor while the other asked about blacks over whites. Immediately before the framing experiment, respondents were asked to name McCain and Obama s religions (in that order) using an open ended question that the interviewer coded to a list of religious affiliations. Immediately following the framing experiment were questions include feeling thermometer evaluations of both Obama and McCain, and a set of questions on affective response to the candidates. These questions asked how often Obama or McCain (or their policies) made respondents feel afraid, anxious, enthusiastic, or hopeful. 4 Finally, a standard set of demographic characteristics was captured. 3 The Hawkeye Poll was fielded by the University of Iowa Social Science Research Center from October 1 through November 2, 2008 interviewing roughly 50 respondents per day. The sampling frame was a national random sample of households with landline telephones and at least one registered voter. Callers were instructed to ask first for the youngest male at home who was a registered voter. If a male was not available, callers spoke to an available female. Respondents were screened for registered voter status and the interview was terminated if the respondent was not registered. The AAPOR response rate 1 was 7.5% of all numbers dialed, cooperation rate 1 was 19%, refusal rate 1 was 32%, and contact rate 1 was 38%. Data reported here are unweighted as appropriate for experimental designs. 4 The emotions question also had an experiment embedded. A random half of respondents were asked about their feelings towards the candidates, while the other half were asked about feelings towards the candidates policies. For reasons that go beyond this paper, the experiment had little effect on emotional responses, so we combine the two versions into one dependent variable for each emotion. We do control for this experiment in later analyses here. 10

11 For the framing experiment, we created three unique frames to describe Obama, and randomly assigned our participants to one of the frames, or to a control condition that was not provided a frame, with about 400 respondents in each condition. The three frames were: Muslim Frame: Because his uncle in Kenya is Muslim, and for a few years he was raised in Indonesia, a Muslim country; how much do you think Barack Obama can sympathize with the Muslim community in America? Is it very much, somewhat, only a little, not at all? Black Frame: Because he worked as a community organizer for a Black church in Chicago, and represented a majority-black district in the Illinois Senate; how much do you think Barack Obama can sympathize with the Black community in America? Is it very much, somewhat, only a little, not at all? Christian Frame: Because he was married in, and attended a Christian church, and has stressed his Christian values; how much do you think Barack Obama can sympathize with the Christian community in America? Is it very much, somewhat, only a little, not at all? These frames all provide two key pieces of information highlighting Obama s ties to a particular group and then ask the degree to which the respondent thinks Obama can sympathize with the target group. We believe that those who responded very much that Obama could sympathize were clearly in agreement with the frame, while those who said only a little or not at all were rejecting the frame. The question of where to place those responding somewhat is complex; in the end we decided to create a third group that was ambivalent about the frame. 5 5 While we have the Christian frame available, for the purposes of this paper we focus only on the Black and Muslim frames compared to the no frame control group. For the most part the Christian frame results are a mirror image of the Muslim frame. For more details and analysis of all frames, see Barreto, Redlawsk, and Tolbert,

12 We use these data to examine 1) the extent to which belief that Obama is Muslim correlates with affective responses to Obama; 2) whether similar effects can be found for (incorrect) beliefs about McCain s religion; 3) how affect predicts beliefs about Obama s religion; and 4) the extent to which framing Obama as Muslim (or Black) generates affective responses toward him. We are in particular interested in whether predictors of who says don t know to Obama s religion are similar to those predicting actual belief Obama is Muslim. These exploratory efforts may help us better understand the wellsprings of belief that Obama is Muslim and the extent to which they are tied up in emotional responses toward him and potentially hidden through some sense of social desirability effects on the part of respondents. Results We start by examining the marginals for the religion question (Table 1). Large percentages of our respondents purported to not know the religion of both McCain (41.4%) and Obama (35.4%). The modal response for both candidates was Protestant with some people (8.1%) identifying McCain as Catholic (as did 2.2% for Obama). The striking thing of course is that given an open ended question, 6.8% of respondents said Obama is Muslim (no one said this about McCain). But perhaps that so many Americans would not even venture a guess as to either candidate s religion is also important. It may simply be that the religious affiliation of candidates is not that important to voters, except that other surveys such as Gallup in 2006 have found that non-trivial percentages of Americans would not vote for a Mormon (17%), a Muslim (38%) or an atheist (48%) for president. The alternative possibility that we explore below is that the Don t Know responses to Obama hide a substantial group of people who are in fact fearful of Obama and in that fear. We do not expect to see the same thing hidden in the McCain don t knows. 12

13 [Insert Table 1 about Here] We also display the responses to our question tapping overt beliefs about Obama (and McCain s) policy implications for Blacks and Whites. No one believes that Obama will favor whites of blacks; likewise no one expects McCain to favor blacks over whites. But nearly one in five respondents does believe Obama will favor blacks, and about the same percentage believe McCain will favor whites. On the other hand, 8 in 10 for each candidate claim he will treat both groups equally. Again, we suspect for Obama this latter group includes people who sincerely hold this belief as well as respondents who simply say so because they believe it is the answer they should give to their interviewer due to social expectations. Both candidates generate a full range of affective responses, as shown in Table 2. The distribution of responses is not substantially different for the two candidates, across both the positive and negative affect words. If anything, McCain generates a bit more anxiety, while fear appears similar between the two. Obama is more likely to generate positive responses, both in terms of enthusiasm and hope. Mostly this probably reflects that respondents overall were more likely to say they planned to vote for Obama (48.6%) than McCain (44.9%). [Insert Table 2 about Here] Emotions and Beliefs about Religion: Bivariate Analysis We turn now to looking at the relationship between belief that Obama is Muslim and affective responses to Obama. We start by simply looking at the mean responses to the affect questions for those who believe Obama is Muslim compared to all other respondents shown in Table 3. Not surprisingly, all four difference tests are significant, with those believing Obama is Muslim exhibiting more fear and anxiety, and less enthusiasm and hope than other respondents. The differences are quite large, at about 1 point on the 1-4 scale. Table 4 reports ANOVA tests 13

14 without controls, using a three-level measure of Obama s religion: those who believe Obama is not Muslim, those who believe he is Muslim, and those who say they don t know his religion. The same basic trend exists for all for affective responses. For the two negative emotions fear and anxiety those who do not believe Obama is Muslim are less least likely to say Obama evokes these emotions, while those who believe he is Muslim are significantly more likely to say so, while the don t knows fall in between. For the positive emotions, believing Obama is Muslim is related to a significantly lower likelihood of reporting these emotions, while believing he is not Muslim results in a much higher mean, while again the don t knows fall in between. [Insert Tables 3 and 4 about Here] Multivariate Assessment of Beliefs about Religion Of course, there are many reasons why respondents say that candidates make them feel afraid, anxious, enthusiastic, or hopeful. No doubt these affective responses are conditioned on partisanship, for example, as may be the belief that Obama is Muslim. We need to examine this through the lens of a multivariate analysis to determine the extent to which beliefs about Obama s Muslimness are related to affective responses to him. We build a fairly standard logit model of evaluation, entering the usual demographic variables (race, ethnicity, age, education, gender, marital status) along with partisanship, ideology, religiosity, and a dummy indicating born again Christian. We control for information effects through a variable measuring election news consumption. 6 We also enter our four measures of affective response. Our dependent variable is simply belief that Obama is Muslim (coded 1) versus all others (coded 0). The results for Obama are presented in the set of columns 6 The model also controls for the experiment embedded in the emotions questions. As noted above half of respondents were given Obama and McCain s policies as the reference while the other half were given the candidates themselves as the reference. The experiment appears to have had little effect on responses to Obama, as indicated by the lack of significance of the control variable throughout the following analyses. Interestingly the control is significant for the McCain analyses. 14

15 in Table 5. [Insert Table 5 about Here] Not surprisingly, being better educated reduces the chances of thinking Obama is Muslim. Interestingly, being male and being a born again Christian both increase the odds of believing this. No other demographic variable reaches convention levels of significance. More interestingly, once we apply the multivariate analysis the bivariate effects of both anxiety and enthusiasm drop out, and we are left with only fear and hope predicting belief that Obama is Muslim. Both are fairly strong effects. A one-unit increase in the frequency of feeling fear about Obama results in a 48 percent increase in the odds of calling him Muslim. Hope on the other hand decreases the odds by about 32 percent. We repeat this model with beliefs about McCain s religion as the dependent variable, coding 1 for respondents who said McCain was Catholic or other non-protestant religion, and 0 for all others, including don t knows. The striking result shown in the second set of columns in Table 5 is that while several other demographic and political variables are significant for McCain, none of the affect measures come even close to significance. Affect towards McCain has no relationship to beliefs about his religion. Predicting Beliefs about Religion: The Don t Knows We suggest above that it is one thing to be explicit about saying Obama is Muslim, but it might well be that some people who think he might be Muslim are unwilling to say so to an interviewer. We might not expect as strong a social desirability effect as we would for race, since the evidence of other polling is that many Americans are quite willing to express negative feelings about Muslims. Yet even so we may find that some respondents harbor perhaps some 15

16 doubts about Obama, but rather than simply call him a Muslim, the respond don t know or refuse to answer the question. Typically of course we ignore the missing data; preferring to examine only those who do answer our questions. But here we take direct aim at respondents who do not name a religion for Obama. To do so we build a multinomial logit model, where the dependent variable is three levels of belief that Obama is Muslim (don t believe, don t know, believe) with the first group serving as our reference. The results of this analysis are presented in Table 6. The first columns assess respondents who respond Don t Know to the religion question, while the second set represents those who explicitly call him Muslim. Both are compared to the reference group of those saying Obama is not Muslim. As with the previous analysis, a few of the demographic and political variables are significant discriminators between the three categories. Education reduces the likelihood of calling Obama Muslim and of not knowing, though news consumption does not differentiate between Obama is Muslim and the reference group. Born again Christians are more likely to say Obama is Muslim, though not to be part of the don t know group. However, no other demographic or political variables differentiate the religion response groups. [Insert Table 6 about Here] When we turn to the affective responses to Obama, the logit analysis is reinforced. As in the logit, in the multinomial analysis neither anxiety nor enthusiasm play any role in predicting response to the religion question. But fear and hope both play clear and distinguishing roles. A one-unit increase in expressing fear about Obama (which ranges across never, rarely, occasionally, and often) increases the odds of saying don t know to the question by 29%, while a one unit increase in feeling hopeful about Obama results in 21% decrease in the odds of 16

17 responding don t know. The effects are stronger for those who explicitly say Obama is Muslim. A one unit increase in fear results in a 66% increase in the odds of expressly saying Obama is Muslim, while hope again tempers the response, decreasing the odds by 33%. When we control for a range of demographic and political variables, as well as for both positive and negative emotions towards Obama, we find that it is fear and hope that are operating. Fear is a specific emotion people are generally afraid of something identifiable. Anxiety, which is not operating here, is a more diffuse response, often with a less identifiable target. Given the specific target here is very clear, the operation of fear seems to make sense. But this is also an important and clear finding. It is specifically fear, and not anxiety, which increases the likelihood of believing Obama is Muslim. The fact that fear also operates to predict those who respond don t know appears to support our contention that this category of respondents must include at least some who believe Obama is Muslim but are unwilling to say so in the telephone interview environment. As we did with the logit earlier, we specify a similar multinomial model for responses to the question about McCain s religion. Recall that a larger percentage of respondents (41%) responded that they did not know McCain s religion, more than for Obama. Another 50% said he is Protestant (the correct answer) while just over 8.5% said McCain is something other than Protestant. We use these three categories as we did with Obama, examining whether emotional responses predict beliefs about McCain s religion in Table 7. The short answer is that emotional responses toward McCain have no relationship to beliefs about his religion, whether attempting to predict who thinks McCain is not Protestant or who simply does not know his religion. Interestingly, many other factors do discriminate between those who currently call McCain Protestant and other respondents. In particular, older 17

18 respondents are more likely to not know, while they are less likely to belief he is not Protestant. News consumption reduces the don t know likelihood, and education and being a born-again Christian are negatively related to both groups compared to the baseline knowledge that McCain is Protestant. [Insert Table 7 about Here] The picture we get from these two analyses is that fear and hope are related to beliefs that Obama is Muslim (or not knowing what he is) while unrelated to beliefs about McCain s religion. We are of course not surprised to find no relationship for McCain; there is no a priori reason to believe that perceptions of McCain s religion would be related to emotional responses to McCain. But in the case of Obama, given the evidence from other surveys (Gallup 2006; CCAP 2008) that simply being Muslim is perceived negatively, the expected relationship is found for fear, and to a lesser extent hope. An Attempt to Parse Out Explicit Racial Attitudes Of course, what we cannot tell from this analysis is whether perceptions of Obama s religion are standing in for other perceptions of Obama; specifically his race. Perhaps the fear towards Obama is driven not so much by his religion per se, but by his otherness ; that he is not the typical American presidential candidate as much because he is Black as having anything to do with being Muslim. It may simply be that calling Obama Muslim (or professing to not know his religion) is allowable, where admitting dislike because of his race is not. One way to look at this might be to remove from our analysis respondents who are explicit in their perception that Obama will favor Blacks in his policies. This question may provide a legitimate way to express racially-based concerns about Obama, by cloaking them in 18

19 a policy context, as opposed to a personal one. In doing so we can consider whether the effects we see are more or less pronounced for those who profess to see Obama as evenhanded in his policies. That is, are we tapping an effect that is different from overt racial attitudes? We have a question in the survey that may allow us to get at this, by examining only respondents who believe Obama will treat both blacks and whites equally in his policies. Recall that about 18% of our sample was willing to say that Obama will favor blacks over whites in his policies. We would expect these (nearly all white) respondents who are overtly expressing their sense of what will happen with a black president to have a certain amount of fear towards Obama (and presumably much less hope). In fact, they do: 82.9% express at least some fear about Obama, compared to 33.6% of all other respondents. The differences extend to the other affective responses: 87.3% are anxious about him (46.7% of all others); 13.9% are enthusiastic (vs. 62.8%); and 16.3% feel hope, compared to 67.9% of other respondents. The difference also extends to beliefs about Obama s religion, with 17.5% of those who believe Obama will favor Blacks calling him Muslim (compared to 4.7% of all others) and 43.6% saying they do not know Obama s religion (33.7% of others.) Perhaps this group of respondents who are willing to explicitly say that Obama will favor Blacks may be driving our findings on emotion and religion. To see if this is so, we examine our model without these respondents included and report the results in Table 8. This model is a simple logit model predicting the belief that Obama is Muslim against the baseline that he is not (which includes both correct respondents and don t knows.) The resulting model shown in Table 8 is instructive. As before greater education lowers the odds of thinking Obama is Muslim, while males are more likely to believe so. And hope drops out of the equation, leaving only fear to predict belief that Obama is Muslim. The effect is 19

20 quite substantial. All else equal, among respondents who purport to believe Obama will treat blacks and whites equally in his policies, a one unit increase in fear increases the odds of thinking Obama is Muslim by 84%. While the Hope effects may be driven (in a negative way) by the group of respondents willing to express their racial expectations, this is clearly not the case for fear about Obama. Instead, we find fear as an important determinant of mis-attributing Obama s religion among voters who claim that Obama s policy treatment will be racially evenhanded. [Insert Table 8 about Here] Framing Obama At this point we have shown a strong relationship between fear (and to a lesser extent hope) and beliefs about Obama as Muslim, while showing no such effects in predicting beliefs about McCain s religion. We also show that removing respondents who overtly claim that Obama will favor Blacks from the analysis does not reduce the effect of fear. If anything the effects of fear are stronger among voters who purport to believe Obama will treat both blacks and whites equally. However, we still cannot completely disentangle the possibility that respondents are reacting to Obama as other rather than Obama as Muslim. We suggest other might include both Obama s race and his (purported) religion. We turn to our framing experiment to see if we can sort things out. Recall that respondents were placed into one of three frames about Obama (or a control with no frame) prior to being asked about evaluations and affective responses to the presidential (and vice-presidential) candidates. On the face of it, these frames appear to have had no overall affect. Examining both feeling thermometer and affective responses to Obama by framing condition shows no effects by treatment compared to the control group. (See table 9). We have 20

21 addressed this specific finding elsewhere (Barreto, Redlawsk, and Tolbert, 2009) arguing that respondents are active participants in framing experiments and do not simply accept the frames as given. Instead, we show that agreement or disagreement with the frames conditions both evaluative and affective responses to Obama. [Insert Table 9 about Here] We take advantage of this here to examine how framing Obama as Muslim versus black differentially conditions affective responses, when accounting for respondents agreement with or rejection of a frame. We propose that if the effects for fear and hope are related to Obama as Muslim rather than Obama as black, this should appear in our framing experiment. Specifically, we would expect that framing Obama as Muslim should increase the likelihood of expressing fear about Obama (and decrease hope) compared to the control group receiving no frame, but only for those who actually agree with the frame, that is, believe Obama can sympathize with the Muslim community. For those rejecting the frame, we might see the opposite effects. More importantly, we would also expect to see no effects for emotions in the Obama as Black frame, compared to the control, if the fear effects we find for Obama as Muslim in the earlier analysis are in fact primarily about his religion and not about his race. Within our sample, we code those who believe Obama can sympathize with the target group Very much as agreeing with the frame, while those who think Obama can sympathize only a little or not at all are classified as rejecting the frame. We also identify a middle ground of ambivalence toward the frame, for those who responded somewhat. Table 10 presents the responses to the frames. Not surprisingly few respondents reject the Black frame, although only 62.1% say Obama can sympathize very much with the Black community. Distribution of responses to the Muslim frame are more varied, with 31.8% saying Obama can 21

22 sympathize very much with the Muslim community, while 23.5% said only a little or not at all. [Insert Table 10 about Here] As a first cut we simply examine the percentages of our respondents expressing fear and hope for our two frames and levels of agreement with those frames. These results are shown in Table 11. Looking first at the Muslim frame, we find that respondents who reject the frame are far less likely to say Obama often makes them feel afraid, compared to the no-frame control. Likewise, those who agree with the frame believing Obama can sympathize very much with the Muslim community are far more likely to say Obama makes them often afraid, again compared to the control. Let us be clear here, the only difference between the framed groups and the control are the frames that were received before the affect questions were asked. Thus those given the Muslim frame and who agreed with it were more afraid and less hopeful than those not framed and those who rejected the frame. [Insert Table 11 about Here] This by itself is interesting, but importantly it is also very different from what happens with the Black frame. In this frame we find no significant effects on fear or hope at all for those who agree with the frame. Framing Obama as black does not increase fear or decrease hope among those agreeing with the frame compared to the control group. Of course, there is an important point we should make now. Framing experiments generally rely on random assignment to the frames to wash out individual level differences between respondents across the experimental groups. If all we were interested in was examining the marginal effects between the groups, this would be fine for us as well. However, we are dependent on respondents deciding their response to the frames, and this process is assuredly not 22

23 random. There is little doubt, for example, that those who oppose Obama will be more likely to agree with the Muslim frame. Thus, it is important for us to control for a wide range of factors that might effect responses to the frames themselves and thus to the dependent variables as well. We develop a multivariate model of the effects of agreeing (and rejecting) our frames on affective responses to Obama in which we control for a range of demographic and political variables, as well as beliefs that Obama is Muslim (for the Muslim frame) or that his policies will favor Blacks (for the Black frame) and predict feelings of fear and hope. These models are shown in Table [Insert Table 12 about Here] Turning first to the Muslim frame, effects are clear and consistent. First, not surprisingly given our earlier analysis, simply believing Obama is Muslim significantly increases the frequency of feeling fear and decreases the feeling of hope. Both effects are strong and as expected. But, importantly, after controlling for this effect, agreeing with the frame that is, believing Obama can sympathize with the Muslim community also increases fear and depresses hope. Being ambivalent toward or rejecting the frame has the opposite effect. Clearly, activating the idea of Obama as Muslim activates the negative emotion of fear. But the Black frame does not have this effect. Not surprisingly, overtly saying Obama will favor Blacks is related to increased fear and decreased hope. However, after controlling for this explicit effect, there is little to no effect of either agreeing with or rejecting this frame on either fear or hope. That is, drawing attention to Obama as Black does not activate fear in the same way that drawing attention to his Muslim roots does. 7 One potential problem in this analysis is that selection into agreement or rejection of the frame is not random, and thus may be endogenous to our model. We ran two-stage least squares models replicating the analysis where we first estimate predictors of frame agreement/rejection then use the predictions from that first stage model in place of the frame agreement/ambivalence/rejection variables. Doing so replicates the findings. We report the ordered logit model since interpretation of that model is easier. The 2SLS model is available from the authors on request. 23

24 Discussion Belief that Obama is Muslim appears to be growing, rather than declining. But it has been growing at the same time that evaluations of his presidency have become more negative. There is no question that Obama as Muslim has potential to be a way to talk about fears of Obama fears that might be driven by more than his alleged Muslimness. We show that fear is a clear driver in beliefs about Obama as Muslim, and it fails to predict beliefs about McCain s religion. But we also show that Obama as black does not activate fear and hope, suggesting that the effects we do see for religion are most likely not standing in for covert racial attitudes. We also see that fear and hope predict not only belief that Obama is Muslim, but also the likelihood of responding don t know to the question; again something that does not appear in our analysis of responses to the same question for McCain. Throughout the campaign in 2008 headlines continued to refer to Obama s Race Problem including a Yahoo! interactive web page where visitors could review countless news stories and poll results suggesting racism might doom Obama. 8 Interestingly, association of Obama as a Muslim was regarded as a legitimate news story, and never rejected as a politically incorrect attack against the professed Christian candidate. When rumors circulated that Obama had converted to Islam as a child attending school in Indonesia, CNN actually sent a news crew to Jakarta for a week to investigate this (headline read: CNN debunks false report about Obama 9 ) as if finding evidence of his Muslim conversion at age eight would indeed ruin his chances for the presidency. Throughout the election, when critics made an issue of Obama s blackness, there was immediate push-back from the Obama campaign, as well as from surrogates and even some commentators (for example, Keith Olbermann routinely took on racially based comments on his

25 nightly MSNBC television show). However, when Obama was painted as a Muslim, the Obama campaign would quickly try to simply deny those claims, as opposed to actively pushing back against anti-muslim attitudes. 10 Because of Obama s seemingly elusive past, his father and family in Kenya that nobody knew about, as well as his four years living in Indonesia, it was easy for the opposition to throw out Muslim rumors that became a news story just to correct. Further, the public was more than ready to accept stories about Obama s Muslim-ness and condemn him for this association. Only seven years removed from September 11, 2001, the American public in 2008 continues to harbor a high degree of anti-muslim attitudes, and with little efforts to correct these attitudes, it has almost become accepted, if not expected, to hold negative opinions of Muslims (Nacos and Torres-Reyna 2007). During the previous eight years of the Bush administration, the so-called War on Terror was the center of attention, and negative stereotypes of Muslims filled the airwaves. The specter was raised of home-grown terrorists and the public was asked to be vigilant, especially against suspicious looking people, which generally translated to Muslims. Congressman Peter King, then chairman of homeland security committee called on the FBI to increase surveillance of mosques in an effort to track suspected terrorists. Americans who held xenophobic or racist views may have rejected Muslims in any event, however the connection between Muslims and the terrorist attacks on 9/11 provided an opportunity for all Americans to be worried, anxious or to discriminate against Muslims, and cause the two major political parties to be especially cautious in their outreach and courting of Muslim voters (Barreto and Bozonelos 2009). The percentage of Americans who say Obama is Muslim has grown according to Pew 10 It wasn t until Colin Powell s endorsement of Obama two weeks before the election that anyone had stopped to say, as Powell did, Well, the correct answer is, he is not a Muslim, he s a Christian. He s always been a Christian. But the really right answer is, what if he is? Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country? The answer s no, that s not America. 25

26 surveys. In 2008, about 12% said Obama is Muslim, while in September 2010 the number had grown to 18%. Our finding of an emotional basis to perceptions of Obama as Muslim suggest that in the context of evaluations of Obama we should expect correction of mis-information about his religion to be particularly difficult, especially among those who dislike Obama even if on policy grounds. Do people simply know less than they did two years ago? We suspect not. Instead, motivated reasoning processes may be in play here. While most research has focused on motivated processing in the face of positive evaluations, such processes may work with those we like or dislike. The Pew data finds Republicans and conservatives groups who don t like him have shown the greatest increase in the belief that Obama is Muslim. One reason for their dislike could be the belief Obama is not mainstream, i.e., a Muslim. Despite much available information to the contrary, those who dislike Obama not only ignore this information but actively counter it with other negatives. In doing so, the idea that he is Muslim becomes a reality for some who dislike him anyway, even more so when they must defend their existing dislike to a pollster. But why do more people believe Obama to be Muslim? One reason undoubtedly is due to the increased numbers who negatively evaluate his policies. The president s actions have replaced the public s assumptions about how he should or will act. More negative evaluations lead to more people working to maintain those evaluations by believing facts that are not true, even if the truth is available. Of course, there are public anti-obama voices who continue to press the idea that Obama is Muslim, thus feeding misinformation into the process as well. We find that there are emotional underpinnings to belief that Obama is Muslim and we find that they can be distinguished from responses to his race. Obama as Muslim is a perhaps safe way to give voice to unspoken fears about what it means to have someone in the White 26

27 House who does not fit the historical image of a president. More research is needed to fully understand both the dynamics and implications of these findings, but we suggest that we have taken important first steps in this paper. 27

28 Table 1 Marginal Response to Religion and Favoritism Questions Do you happen to know John McCain s religion? Just tell me what you think his religion is? How about Barack Obama? Just tell me what you think his religion is. McCain Obama Protestant Muslim Catholic Jewish Mormon Other Don t Know/No Answer N= If [Barack Obama / John McCain] is elected President, do you think the policies of his administration will favor whites over blacks, favor blacks over whites, or will they treat both groups the same? McCain Obama Whites over Blacks Blacks Over Whites Treat Both Equally N= Table 2 Affective Responses to Candidates* McCain Obama Afraid Anxious Enthus Hopeful Afraid Anxious Enthus Hopeful Never Rarely Occasionally Often N= *Summarizing across all Obama Frames and Control 28

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