Pollock s Theory of Defeasible Reasoning
|
|
- Alisha Garrett
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 s Theory of Defeasible Reasoning Jonathan University of Toronto Northern Institute of Philosophy June 18, 2010
2 Outline 1 2 Inference 3 s 4 Success Stories: The of Acceptance 5 6 Topics
3
4 1 Problematic Bayesian Idealizations 1 Computational Demands 2 Storage Demands 3 Logical Omniscience 2 Representing Sequential Reasoning 3 of Acceptance 1 The Lottery Paradox 2 The Lottery Paradox Paradox 3 The Preface Paradox 4 The Epistemological Role of Non-Doxastic States 5 Dissatisfaction with Standard Non-Monotonic Logics
5 Problematic Bayesian Idealizations Computational Demands: a Bayesian agent updates all her probabilities with each new piece of evidence. Computationally demanding, often wasteful. At odds with our actual reasoning. Storage Demands: a Bayesian agent stores a real number for each conditional belief, a combinatorial nightmare ( 2008). Suppose an agent has 300 beliefs. The number of conditional probabilities of the form p(a B 1...B n ) that must be stored is about > the number of particles in the universe. Logical Omniscience: a Bayesian agent assigns probability 1 to all logical truths, but we surely can t and don t. (2008) advertises his framework as avoiding the first two problems. I m advertising it as avoiding the last.
6 Representing Sequential Reasoning A lot of our reasoning appears to be sequential, in two ways: Collecting reasons. Deploying reasons. Bayesianism, DST, ranking theory, etc. all ignore this reality. As a result, they may fail to acknowledge beliefs that are justified despite not taking account of all the evidence. If other cognitive demands (pragmatic or epistemic) rationally interrupt a train of reasoning, you may be justified in believing the conclusions drawn so far.
7 of Acceptance s treatment of the paradoxes of acceptance respects the following desiderata. Preface: you are justified in believing the claims in your book. Lottery: you are not justified in believing your ticket will win. Conjunction: if you are justified in believing A and B, you are justified in believing A&B. This package is very hard to come by.
8 The Epistemological Role of Non-Doxastic States On many epistemological views, non-doxastic states play a role in justifying beliefs: Perceptual states Memories Module outputs On some views, non-doxastic states alone justify:, Pryor On others, they do so in conjunction with background beliefs: Vogel, White? But formal epistemologies almost never address the justificatory role of non-doxastic states.
9 Dissatisfaction with Standard Non-Monotonic Logics s reasons for dissatifaction with other non-monotonic formalisms vary from case to case: Too limited Implausible results Off-topic For a survey, see ( 1995: 104-9).
10 Inference
11 Epistemic States In s system, an agent s epistemic state is represented by an inference graph. Nodes: reasons and the propositions they bear on. Directed edges: relations of support and defeat. Example: F B P
12 Defeat: Rebutting vs. Undercutting acknowledges two kinds of defeaters: 1 Rebutters: R is a rebutting defeater of P if it is a reason for P. 2 Undercutters: U is an undercutting defeater of P as a reason for Q if it is a reason for (P wouldn t be true unless Q were true). The negated conditional is symbolized P Q. So the previous example is properly represented: F B F B P
13 Example: Rebutting Defeat Example: Pam says that Robert will be at the party, whereas Qbert says he won t be: R R P Q
14 Inference Rules Where do the arrows come from? That is, when is one thing a reason for another? proposes a number of inference rules in various writings, but does not pretend to have a complete list. The methodology: propose rules that seem plausible and test them on numerous examples. Finding a list of complete rules that yield sensible results is a major burden of the theory. Compare the Bayesian s task of specifying rationality constraints on priors: Reflection, PP, Indifference, etc.
15 Inference Rules: Some Examples 1 Perceptual Justification x s appearing R is a defeasible reason for believing that x is R. ( 1971, 1974) Temporal Projection Believing P@t is a defeasible reason for believing P@(t + t), the strength of the reason being a monotonic decreasing function of t (for appropriate P). ( 2008) Discontinuity Defeat P@t 1 is an undercutting defeater for the inference by Temporal Projection from P@t 0 to P@t 2. (ibid) Statistical Syllogism If r > 1/2 then Fc & p(g F) r is a prima facie reason for Gc, the strength of the reason being a monotonic increasing function of r. ( 1990,1995) Subproperty Defeat Hc & p(g F&H) p(g F) is an undercutting defeater for the Statistical Syllogism. 1 NB: these are simplified glosses, omitting important qualifiers and details.
16 Initial Nodes: Perception Inference rules tell us how to introduce new nodes into the graph given initial nodes, but where do initial nodes come from? In other words, what can be used as a reason without appeal to a supporting reason? is surprisingly brief on this point. Formally, we just help ourselves to a set of premises: input. He does say, Epistemic reasoning starts with premises that are input to the reasoner. In human beings, these are provided by perception. ( 1995: 39) Perception provides the premises in input from which epistemic cognition reasons forward [... ] (ibid: 47)
17 Initial Nodes: Further Candidates Should other things be included in input too? Existing (justified) beliefs Memory states Outputs of non-perceptual modules Fortunately, we can explore the formalism and many of its applications without answering this question. But it does raise important, tricky questions about what an inference graph is supposed to represent. An agent s epistemic state at a time: the reasons and inferences she is currently aware of? A record of her reasoning over time: all the reasons and inferences she has taken account of in her lifetime? The framework s appeal may depend heavily on our choice here.
18 s
19 Defeat Statuses We want to be able to figure out what beliefs are justified given the reasons and inferences taken into account so far. We want an algorithm for assigning the statuses defeated and undefeated to nodes in a given graph. Using to symbolize defeated and + to symbolize undefeated, we want results like: F B F + R R + B P + + P Q +
20 : A First Attempt Definition: D-initial Node A node is D-initial iff neither it nor any of its ancestors are termini of a defeat link. Then here s a plausible, first attempt: (1) D-initial nodes are undefeated. (2) If the immediate ancestors of node A are undefeated, and all nodes defeating it are defeated, then A is undefeated. (3) If A has a defeated immediate ancestor, or there is an undefeated node that defeats A, then A is defeated. This proposal gets the right results for Tweety and other simple examples.
21 A Problem: Collective Defeat But it does poorly in cases of collective defeat, like our example of conflicting testimony. The only assignments consistent with (1) (3) are: + R R R + R + P Q + + P Q + Both are counterintuitive and unjustifiably anti-symmetric.
22 Another Problem: Self-Defeat If we assign to Q, we violate (2): R P Q Q + P
23 Another Problem: Self-Defeat If we assign + to Q, we violate (3): + + R P Q + Q + P
24 Partial & Maximal Assignments These complications (and others) motivate a more sophisticated approach: Definition: Partial Status Assignments A partial status assignment assigns + and to at least some nodes and satisfies: (P1) All D-initial nodes are undefeated. (P2) A is undefeated iff the immediate ancestors of A are undefeated, and all nodes defeating A are defeated. (P3) A is defeated iff A has a defeated immediate ancestor, or there is an undefeated node that defeats A. Definition: Maximal Status Assignment A status assignment is maximal iff it is partial and is not contained in any larger partial assignment.
25 The Final Proposal Proposal: Supervaluation A node is undefeated iff every maximal status assignment gives it a +; otherwise it is defeated. We can quickly verify that this solves our earlier problems: Collective Defeat: there are two maximal assignments, and R and R each get in one of them. So both are defeated. Self-Defeat: there is only one maximal assignment, which merely assigns + to P. So everything else comes out defeated.
26 The of Acceptance
27 The Lottery Paradox A fair lottery of 100 tickets, with exactly one winner. Let D = The description of the lottery. T i = Ticket #i will win. Then the paradoxical inference graph is: D T 1 T 2. & i ( T i ) i (T i ) T 100
28 Solving the Lottery Paradox The solution lies in noticing that there is a rebutting defeater for each T i. For example, the rebutting defeater for T 1 is the argument for T 1 based on i (T i ) and T 2,..., T 100. T 1 T 1 D T 2 i (T i ). T 100
29 Solving the Lottery Paradox The solution lies in noticing that there is a rebutting defeater for each T i. Similarly, the rebutting defeater for T 2 is the argument for T 2 based on i (T i ) and T 1, T 3,..., T 100. T 1 D T 2 T 2 i (T i ). T 100
30 Solving the Lottery Paradox Every T i gets a on at least one maximal status assignment: For every T k there is a status assignment that assigns + to all the other T i s and to i (T i ). On that status assignment, T k gets a +. So T k gets a. So, in the final reckoning, each T i comes out defeated. So you are not justified in believing of any ticket that it will lose.
31 The Lottery Paradox Paradox Suppose you read about the lottery in the newspaper (R). We then have a different paradoxical challenge: T 1 R D T 2. & i ( T i ) T 100 D The argument has a self-defeating structure! So aren t we unjustified in believing the lottery will happen as described?
32 Solving the Lottery Paradox Paradox This paradox is avoided because the argument for D will always depend on a defeated premise. On every assignment, one of the T i gets a. So the argument for & i (T i ) has a defeated premise on every assignment. So D gets on every assignment. (2008) advertises this result as a superiority of his system over McCarthy s (1980) circumscription semantics for non-monotonic logic (and various sophistications of it).
33 The Preface Paradox The preface paradox appears to have the same structure as the lottery, and so threatens to get the same, skeptical result. Let B = your background knowledge. C i = Claim #i in the book is true. C 1 C 1 B C 2 C 2 i ( C i ). C 100 C 100
34 Solving the Preface Paradox s solution is to undermine the argument for each C i. Each C i is supported by a deductive argument from the remaining C i and i ( C i ). For example, C 100 is supported by a deductive argument from C 1,...,C 99 and i ( C i ) But given C 1,...,C 99, the argument supporting i ( C i ) is defeated! Why? Because if the first 99 claims are true, we no longer have reason to believe that the book contains a falsehood. Our reason to believe the book contains a falsehood is statistical; books of this length typically contain falsehoods. But books of this length where the first 99 claims are true do not typically contain falsehoods!
35 Solving the Preface Paradox The statistical inference from B to to i ( C i ) suffers subproperty defeat on every assignment. Let F: p(falsehood Length) 1. S: p(falsehood Length & C 2 C 100 are true) 1. C 1 S B C 2 F i ( C i ) i ( C i ). C 100 F
36 The Lottery vs. The Preface s treatment of the lottery and the preface trades on a crucial difference: In the lottery, the T i are negatively relevant to one another. In the preface, the C i are not negatively relevant to one another; they are either independent or positively relevant.
37
38 The Generalized Lottery Paradox A threat: any proposition can be viewed as a lottery proposition. (Korb 1992; Douven & Williamson 2006) Every proposition is a member of an inconsistent set of equally, statistically supported propositions. Thus every proposition is subject to collective defeat. Take any proposition P and a fair, 100-ticket lottery: Consider the set of propositions {P, (P & T 1 ),..., (P & T 100 )} Each member is highly probable. The set is inconsistent. So the members suffer collective defeat; none is justified.
39 A Reply explicitly qualifies the Statistical Syllogism with a projectability constraint: To infer that Gc from the fact that p(g F) > r, G must be projectable with respect to F. This restriction is designed to prevent projection based on gruesome statistics. Arguably, one s statistical evidence for a proposition like (P & T i ) (if we even have such evidence) is gruesome. So might reply that these propositions can t even be introduced into the inference graph by appeal to SS. 2 2 Cf. footnote 5 of (Douven & Williamson 2006).
40 Bootstrapping s treatment of the preface threatens to lead to bootstrapping. is deeply committed to the Conjunction Principle. So you re not only justified in believing each claim in your book, you re justified in believing their conjunction! Such immodesty has a way of fuelling itself: Struck by your accomplishment, you increase your estimation of your reliability as a researcher. Heartened, you sit down to write another book, which again turns out to be error-free! Lather, rinse, repeat. You conclude that you are infallible.
41 A Shameless Plug This problem for supports a general view I like. The received view: bootstrapping is a problem for basic knowledge theories like reliabilism and dogmatism. (Vogel 2000, 2008; Cohen 2002; van Cleve 2003) My view: bootstrapping is not a symptom of basic knowledge, it is a problem for everyone. Bootstrapping puzzles show that justified beliefs/knowledge cannot always be used as premises in further reasoning. (, forthcoming) Another example: Williamson s E = K thesis. Suppose Starla reads the first sentence in today s paper, P, coming to know that P and that the newspaper says P. She conditionalizes her evidential probabilities on this new knowledge, increases the probability that the newspaper is reliable.
42 Mixed Lotteries Lasonen-Aarnio (2010) objects that s theory must treat mixed lotteries like the preface paradox: A mixed lottery: take one ticket from the Ontario lottery, one from the Quebec lottery, one from the Texas lottery, one from the UK lottery, etc. The probability of each ticket losing is very high. The probability of at least one winning is very high. But the T i are not negatively relevant; they are probabilistically independent. So the sub-property defeat that yielded the non-skeptical result in the preface paradox should happen here too. In short: mixed lotteries have the probabilistic structure of a preface case, so they should get the same, non-skeptical result.
43 My Response It s not clear to me that is committed to treating the mixed lottery the same as a preface. In a mixed lottery, each ticket is still a member of a regular lottery. So each T i still suffers collective defeat. In terms of defeat statuses: it is still the case that for each T i, there is a status assignment that gives it a. Adding to a standard lottery graph the extra structure that comes with a mixed lottery does not rule out the status assignment that assigned to T i.
44 Topics
45 Variable Degrees of Justification A natural next step is to ask how to compute defeat statuses when the degrees of justification of various arrows varies. See ( 2001) for the details, or the expanded version online (have your LISP compiler handy). Some notable features of s views here: The Weakest Link Principle: the degree of support for a conclusion of an argument is the lowest degree of support in its ancestry. Non-Accrual of Reasons: having more than one reason for a conclusion does not increase its degree of justification.
46 Interest-Driven Reasoning One of the most striking features of s implementation of his system for defeasible reasoning (OSCAR) is the fact that it is interest-driven. OSCAR doesn t just churn out theorems in some random or lexicographic order. It searches for answers relevant to the questions or practical problems at hand. The architecture for this behaviour is laid out in Chapter 4 of Cognitive Carpentry.
47 Decisions & Planning (1995: ) rejects standard decision theory. Standard decision theory overlooks the importance of planning. The Button Problem: if you press buttons A, B, C, and D, you get 10; if you press button E you get 5. argues that, on standard decision theory, pushing button A does not maximize expected utility. (1995: ch. 5) opts for a two-tier theory of practical reasoning: Agents fist construct plans aimed at goals. They then choose plans based on expected utility maximization.
48 I [1] Stewart Cohen. Basic knowledge and the problem of easy knowledge. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, 65(2): , [2] Maria Lasonen-Aarnio. Is there a viable account of well-founded belief. Erkenntnis, 72(2): , [3] John L.. Perceptual knowledge. The Philosophical Review, 80(2): , [4] John L.. Knowledge and Justification. Princeton University Press, [5] John L.. The paradox of the preface. Philosophy of Science, 53(2): , [6] John L.. Cognitive Carpentry: A Blueprint for How to Build a Person. MIT Press, [7] John L.. Defeasible reasoning with variable degrees of justification. Artificial Intelligence, 133(2): , [8] John L.. Defeasible reasoning. In Jonathan E. Adler and Lance J. Rips, editors, Reasoning: Studies of Human Inference and its Foundations. Cambridge University Press, 2008.
49 II [9] James Van Cleve. Is knowledge easy or impossible? externalism as the only alternative to skepticism. In The Skeptics: Contemporary Essays. Aldershot, UK: Ashgate Publishing, [10] Jonathan Vogel. Reliabilism leveled. Journal of Philosophy, XCVII(11): , [11] Jonathan Vogel. Epistemic bootstrapping. Journal of Philosophy, CV(9): , [12] Jonathan. Bootstrapping in general. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research, forthcoming.
John L. Pollock's theory of rationality
University of Windsor Scholarship at UWindsor OSSA Conference Archive OSSA 3 May 15th, 9:00 AM - May 17th, 5:00 PM John L. Pollock's theory of rationality David Hitchcock McMaster University Follow this
A Priori Bootstrapping
A Priori Bootstrapping Ralph Wedgwood In this essay, I shall explore the problems that are raised by a certain traditional sceptical paradox. My conclusion, at the end of this essay, will be that the most
JUSTIFICATION AND DEFEAT John L. Pollock Department of Philosophy University of Arizona Tucson, Arizona (
From Artificial Intelligence. 67 1994, 377-408. JUSTIFICATION AND DEFEAT John L. Pollock Department of Philosophy University of Arizona Tucson, Arizona 85721 e-mail: pollock@ccit.arizona.edu Abstract This
Skepticism and Internalism
Skepticism and Internalism John Greco Abstract: This paper explores a familiar skeptical problematic and considers some strategies for responding to it. Section 1 reconstructs and disambiguates the skeptical
SUPPOSITIONAL REASONING AND PERCEPTUAL JUSTIFICATION
SUPPOSITIONAL REASONING AND PERCEPTUAL JUSTIFICATION Stewart COHEN ABSTRACT: James Van Cleve raises some objections to my attempt to solve the bootstrapping problem for what I call basic justification
MULTI-PEER DISAGREEMENT AND THE PREFACE PARADOX. Kenneth Boyce and Allan Hazlett
MULTI-PEER DISAGREEMENT AND THE PREFACE PARADOX Kenneth Boyce and Allan Hazlett Abstract The problem of multi-peer disagreement concerns the reasonable response to a situation in which you believe P1 Pn
Pollock and Sturgeon on defeaters
University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln Faculty Publications - Department of Philosophy Philosophy, Department of 2018 Pollock and Sturgeon on defeaters Albert
Bootstrapping in General
Bootstrapping in General Jonathan Weisberg University of Toronto 1 Introduction The following procedure seems epistemically defective. Suppose I have no reason to think the gas gauge in my car is reliable,
A Recursive Semantics for Defeasible Reasoning
A Recursive Semantics for Defeasible Reasoning John L. Pollock Department of Philosophy University of Arizona Tucson, Arizona 85721 pollock@arizona.edu http://www.u.arizona.edu/~pollock Abstract One of
A Recursive Semantics for Defeasible Reasoning
A Recursive Semantics for Defeasible Reasoning John L. Pollock 1 Reasoning in the Face of Pervasive Ignorance One of the most striking characteristics of human beings is their ability to function successfully
DOES SUPPOSITIONAL REASONING SOLVE THE BOOTSTRAPPING PROBLEM?
DOES SUPPOSITIONAL REASONING SOLVE THE BOOTSTRAPPING PROBLEM? James VAN CLEVE ABSTRACT: In a 2002 article Stewart Cohen advances the bootstrapping problem for what he calls basic justification theories,
How to Mistake a Trivial Fact About Probability For a. Substantive Fact About Justified Belief
How to Mistake a Trivial Fact About Probability For a Substantive Fact About Justified Belief Jonathan Sutton It is sometimes thought that the lottery paradox and the paradox of the preface demand a uniform
Phenomenal Conservatism and Skeptical Theism
Phenomenal Conservatism and Skeptical Theism Jonathan D. Matheson 1. Introduction Recently there has been a good deal of interest in the relationship between common sense epistemology and Skeptical Theism.
KNOWING AGAINST THE ODDS
KNOWING AGAINST THE ODDS Cian Dorr, Jeremy Goodman, and John Hawthorne 1 Here is a compelling principle concerning our knowledge of coin flips: FAIR COINS: If you know that a coin is fair, and for all
Bootstrapping and The Bayesian: Why The Conservative is Not Threatened By Weisberg s Super-Reliable Gas Gauge
Bootstrapping and The Bayesian: Why The Conservative is Not Threatened By Weisberg s Super-Reliable Gas Gauge Allison Balin Abstract: White (2006) argues that the Conservative is not committed to the legitimacy
Evidential arguments from evil
International Journal for Philosophy of Religion 48: 1 10, 2000. 2000 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands. 1 Evidential arguments from evil RICHARD OTTE University of California at Santa
PHL340 Handout 8: Evaluating Dogmatism
PHL340 Handout 8: Evaluating Dogmatism 1 Dogmatism Last class we looked at Jim Pryor s paper on dogmatism about perceptual justification (for background on the notion of justification, see the handout
ABSTRACT: In this paper, I argue that Phenomenal Conservatism (PC) is not superior to
Phenomenal Conservatism, Justification, and Self-defeat Moti Mizrahi Forthcoming in Logos & Episteme ABSTRACT: In this paper, I argue that Phenomenal Conservatism (PC) is not superior to alternative theories
I assume some of our justification is immediate. (Plausible examples: That is experienced, I am aware of something, 2 > 0, There is light ahead.
The Merits of Incoherence jim.pryor@nyu.edu July 2013 Munich 1. Introducing the Problem Immediate justification: justification to Φ that s not even in part constituted by having justification to Ψ I assume
Reliabilism: Holistic or Simple?
Reliabilism: Holistic or Simple? Jeff Dunn jeffreydunn@depauw.edu 1 Introduction A standard statement of Reliabilism about justification goes something like this: Simple (Process) Reliabilism: S s believing
ALTERNATIVE SELF-DEFEAT ARGUMENTS: A REPLY TO MIZRAHI
ALTERNATIVE SELF-DEFEAT ARGUMENTS: A REPLY TO MIZRAHI Michael HUEMER ABSTRACT: I address Moti Mizrahi s objections to my use of the Self-Defeat Argument for Phenomenal Conservatism (PC). Mizrahi contends
Moore s paradoxes, Evans s principle and self-knowledge
348 john n. williams References Alston, W. 1986. Epistemic circularity. Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 47: 1 30. Beebee, H. 2001. Transfer of warrant, begging the question and semantic externalism.
Higher-Order Epistemic Attitudes and Intellectual Humility. Allan Hazlett. Forthcoming in Episteme
Higher-Order Epistemic Attitudes and Intellectual Humility Allan Hazlett Forthcoming in Episteme Recent discussions of the epistemology of disagreement (Kelly 2005, Feldman 2006, Elga 2007, Christensen
SCHAFFER S DEMON NATHAN BALLANTYNE AND IAN EVANS
SCHAFFER S DEMON by NATHAN BALLANTYNE AND IAN EVANS Abstract: Jonathan Schaffer (2010) has summoned a new sort of demon which he calls the debasing demon that apparently threatens all of our purported
NICHOLAS J.J. SMITH. Let s begin with the storage hypothesis, which is introduced as follows: 1
DOUBTS ABOUT UNCERTAINTY WITHOUT ALL THE DOUBT NICHOLAS J.J. SMITH Norby s paper is divided into three main sections in which he introduces the storage hypothesis, gives reasons for rejecting it and then
Epistemological Foundations for Koons Cosmological Argument?
Epistemological Foundations for Koons Cosmological Argument? Koons (2008) argues for the very surprising conclusion that any exception to the principle of general causation [i.e., the principle that everything
Reliabilism and the Problem of Defeaters
Reliabilism and the Problem of Defeaters Prof. Dr. Thomas Grundmann Philosophisches Seminar Universität zu Köln Albertus Magnus Platz 50923 Köln E-mail: thomas.grundmann@uni-koeln.de 4.454 words Reliabilism
THE ROLE OF COHERENCE OF EVIDENCE IN THE NON- DYNAMIC MODEL OF CONFIRMATION TOMOJI SHOGENJI
Page 1 To appear in Erkenntnis THE ROLE OF COHERENCE OF EVIDENCE IN THE NON- DYNAMIC MODEL OF CONFIRMATION TOMOJI SHOGENJI ABSTRACT This paper examines the role of coherence of evidence in what I call
STEWART COHEN AND THE CONTEXTUALIST THEORY OF JUSTIFICATION
FILOZOFIA Roč. 66, 2011, č. 4 STEWART COHEN AND THE CONTEXTUALIST THEORY OF JUSTIFICATION AHMAD REZA HEMMATI MOGHADDAM, Institute for Research in Fundamental Sciences (IPM), School of Analytic Philosophy,
Understanding Truth Scott Soames Précis Philosophy and Phenomenological Research Volume LXV, No. 2, 2002
1 Symposium on Understanding Truth By Scott Soames Précis Philosophy and Phenomenological Research Volume LXV, No. 2, 2002 2 Precis of Understanding Truth Scott Soames Understanding Truth aims to illuminate
PHENOMENAL CONSERVATISM, JUSTIFICATION, AND SELF-DEFEAT
PHENOMENAL CONSERVATISM, JUSTIFICATION, AND SELF-DEFEAT Moti MIZRAHI ABSTRACT: In this paper, I argue that Phenomenal Conservatism (PC) is not superior to alternative theories of basic propositional justification
What Should We Believe?
1 What Should We Believe? Thomas Kelly, University of Notre Dame James Pryor, Princeton University Blackwell Publishers Consider the following question: What should I believe? This question is a normative
Is Epistemic Probability Pascalian?
Is Epistemic Probability Pascalian? James B. Freeman Hunter College of The City University of New York ABSTRACT: What does it mean to say that if the premises of an argument are true, the conclusion is
Keywords precise, imprecise, sharp, mushy, credence, subjective, probability, reflection, Bayesian, epistemology
Coin flips, credences, and the Reflection Principle * BRETT TOPEY Abstract One recent topic of debate in Bayesian epistemology has been the question of whether imprecise credences can be rational. I argue
Oxford Scholarship Online Abstracts and Keywords
Oxford Scholarship Online Abstracts and Keywords ISBN 9780198802693 Title The Value of Rationality Author(s) Ralph Wedgwood Book abstract Book keywords Rationality is a central concept for epistemology,
what makes reasons sufficient?
Mark Schroeder University of Southern California August 2, 2010 what makes reasons sufficient? This paper addresses the question: what makes reasons sufficient? and offers the answer, being at least as
Experience and Foundationalism in Audi s The Architecture of Reason
Philosophy and Phenomenological Research Vol. LXVII, No. 1, July 2003 Experience and Foundationalism in Audi s The Architecture of Reason WALTER SINNOTT-ARMSTRONG Dartmouth College Robert Audi s The Architecture
Review of Constructive Empiricism: Epistemology and the Philosophy of Science
Review of Constructive Empiricism: Epistemology and the Philosophy of Science Constructive Empiricism (CE) quickly became famous for its immunity from the most devastating criticisms that brought down
COMPARING CONTEXTUALISM AND INVARIANTISM ON THE CORRECTNESS OF CONTEXTUALIST INTUITIONS. Jessica BROWN University of Bristol
Grazer Philosophische Studien 69 (2005), xx yy. COMPARING CONTEXTUALISM AND INVARIANTISM ON THE CORRECTNESS OF CONTEXTUALIST INTUITIONS Jessica BROWN University of Bristol Summary Contextualism is motivated
PHILOSOPHY 4360/5360 METAPHYSICS. Methods that Metaphysicians Use
PHILOSOPHY 4360/5360 METAPHYSICS Methods that Metaphysicians Use Method 1: The appeal to what one can imagine where imagining some state of affairs involves forming a vivid image of that state of affairs.
In Defence of Single-Premise Closure
1 In Defence of Single-Premise Closure 1 Introduction Deductive reasoning is one way by which we acquire new beliefs. Some of these beliefs so acquired amount to knowledge; others do not. Here are two
A Puzzle about Knowing Conditionals i. (final draft) Daniel Rothschild University College London. and. Levi Spectre The Open University of Israel
A Puzzle about Knowing Conditionals i (final draft) Daniel Rothschild University College London and Levi Spectre The Open University of Israel Abstract: We present a puzzle about knowledge, probability
Rational Self-Doubt and the Failure of Closure *
Rational Self-Doubt and the Failure of Closure * Joshua Schechter Brown University Abstract Closure for justification is the claim that thinkers are justified in believing the logical consequences of their
Inferential Evidence. Jeff Dunn. The Evidence Question: When, and under what conditions does an agent. have proposition E as evidence (at t)?
Inferential Evidence Jeff Dunn Forthcoming in American Philosophical Quarterly, please cite published version. 1 Introduction Consider: The Evidence Question: When, and under what conditions does an agent
Interest-Relativity and Testimony Jeremy Fantl, University of Calgary
Interest-Relativity and Testimony Jeremy Fantl, University of Calgary In her Testimony and Epistemic Risk: The Dependence Account, Karyn Freedman defends an interest-relative account of justified belief
What is a counterexample?
Lorentz Center 4 March 2013 What is a counterexample? Jan-Willem Romeijn, University of Groningen Joint work with Eric Pacuit, University of Maryland Paul Pedersen, Max Plank Institute Berlin Co-authors
Some Considerations Concerning CORNEA, Global Skepticism, and Trust. by Kenneth Boyce
1 Some Considerations Concerning CORNEA, Global Skepticism, and Trust by Kenneth Boyce Abstract: Skeptical theists have been charged with being committed to global skepticism. I consider this objection
A Solution to the Gettier Problem Keota Fields. the three traditional conditions for knowledge, have been discussed extensively in the
A Solution to the Gettier Problem Keota Fields Problem cases by Edmund Gettier 1 and others 2, intended to undermine the sufficiency of the three traditional conditions for knowledge, have been discussed
Evidentialist Reliabilism
NOÛS 44:4 (2010) 571 600 Evidentialist Reliabilism JUAN COMESAÑA University of Arizona comesana@email.arizona.edu 1Introduction In this paper I present and defend a theory of epistemic justification that
Introduction to Cognitivism; Motivational Externalism; Naturalist Cognitivism
Introduction to Cognitivism; Motivational Externalism; Naturalist Cognitivism Felix Pinkert 103 Ethics: Metaethics, University of Oxford, Hilary Term 2015 Cognitivism, Non-cognitivism, and the Humean Argument
On What Inferentially Justifies What: The Vices of Reliabilism and Proper Functionalism Chris Tucker College of William and Mary
On What Inferentially Justifies What: The Vices of Reliabilism and Proper Functionalism Chris Tucker College of William and Mary (forthcoming in Synthese) Early View version available at: http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2fs11229-014-0446-x.pdf
Foundations and Coherence Michael Huemer
Foundations and Coherence Michael Huemer 1. The Epistemic Regress Problem Suppose I believe that P, and I am asked why I believe it. I might respond by citing a reason, Q, for believing P. I could then
Philosophy 5340 Epistemology Topic 4: Skepticism. Part 1: The Scope of Skepticism and Two Main Types of Skeptical Argument
1. The Scope of Skepticism Philosophy 5340 Epistemology Topic 4: Skepticism Part 1: The Scope of Skepticism and Two Main Types of Skeptical Argument The scope of skeptical challenges can vary in a number
NOTES ON WILLIAMSON: CHAPTER 11 ASSERTION Constitutive Rules
NOTES ON WILLIAMSON: CHAPTER 11 ASSERTION 11.1 Constitutive Rules Chapter 11 is not a general scrutiny of all of the norms governing assertion. Assertions may be subject to many different norms. Some norms
On the formalization Socratic dialogue
On the formalization Socratic dialogue Martin Caminada Utrecht University Abstract: In many types of natural dialogue it is possible that one of the participants is more or less forced by the other participant
guilty, then the citizen must be judged innocent. What are the options for rejecting PI? As already mentioned, the immediate competitor for PI is
Matthias Steup Conservatism in Epistemology Defendants and the Presumption of Innocence A democratic society s judicial system is based on the legal presumption of innocence: defendants are presumed innocent
Received: 30 August 2007 / Accepted: 16 November 2007 / Published online: 28 December 2007 # Springer Science + Business Media B.V.
Acta anal. (2007) 22:267 279 DOI 10.1007/s12136-007-0012-y What Is Entitlement? Albert Casullo Received: 30 August 2007 / Accepted: 16 November 2007 / Published online: 28 December 2007 # Springer Science
Epistemic Akrasia. SOPHIE HOROWITZ Massachusetts Institute of Technology
NOÛS 00:0 (2013) 1 27 Epistemic Akrasia SOPHIE HOROWITZ Massachusetts Institute of Technology Many views rely on the idea that it can never be rational to have high confidence in something like, P, but
Bayesian Probability
Bayesian Probability Patrick Maher September 4, 2008 ABSTRACT. Bayesian decision theory is here construed as explicating a particular concept of rational choice and Bayesian probability is taken to be
knowledge is belief for sufficient (objective and subjective) reason
Mark Schroeder University of Southern California May 27, 2010 knowledge is belief for sufficient (objective and subjective) reason [W]hen the holding of a thing to be true is sufficient both subjectively
Analysing reasoning about evidence with formal models of argumentation *
Analysing reasoning about evidence with formal models of argumentation * Henry Prakken Institute of Information and Computing Sciences, Utrecht University PO Box 80 089, 3508 TB Utrecht, The Netherlands
Moral Relativism and Conceptual Analysis. David J. Chalmers
Moral Relativism and Conceptual Analysis David J. Chalmers An Inconsistent Triad (1) All truths are a priori entailed by fundamental truths (2) No moral truths are a priori entailed by fundamental truths
A number of epistemologists have defended
American Philosophical Quarterly Volume 50, Number 1, January 2013 Doxastic Voluntarism, Epistemic Deontology, and Belief- Contravening Commitments Michael J. Shaffer 1. Introduction A number of epistemologists
Evidential Support and Instrumental Rationality
Evidential Support and Instrumental Rationality Peter Brössel, Anna-Maria A. Eder, and Franz Huber Formal Epistemology Research Group Zukunftskolleg and Department of Philosophy University of Konstanz
A Brief Comparison of Pollock s Defeasible Reasoning and Ranking Functions
A Brief Comparison of Pollock s Defeasible Reasoning and Ranking Functions Wolfgang Spohn Fachbereich Philosophie Universität Konstanz 78457 Konstanz Germany 1. Introduction * Formal epistemology could
Jeffrey, Richard, Subjective Probability: The Real Thing, Cambridge University Press, 2004, 140 pp, $21.99 (pbk), ISBN
Jeffrey, Richard, Subjective Probability: The Real Thing, Cambridge University Press, 2004, 140 pp, $21.99 (pbk), ISBN 0521536685. Reviewed by: Branden Fitelson University of California Berkeley Richard
INTUITION AND CONSCIOUS REASONING
The Philosophical Quarterly Vol. 63, No. 253 October 2013 ISSN 0031-8094 doi: 10.1111/1467-9213.12071 INTUITION AND CONSCIOUS REASONING BY OLE KOKSVIK This paper argues that, contrary to common opinion,
INFERENTIALIST RELIABILISM AND PROPER FUNCTIONALISM: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS AS DEFENSES OF EXTERNALISM AMY THERESA VIVIANO
INFERENTIALIST RELIABILISM AND PROPER FUNCTIONALISM: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS AS DEFENSES OF EXTERNALISM by AMY THERESA VIVIANO A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE
Justified Inference. Ralph Wedgwood
Justified Inference Ralph Wedgwood In this essay, I shall propose a general conception of the kind of inference that counts as justified or rational. This conception involves a version of the idea that
Evidence and the epistemic theory of causality
Evidence and the epistemic theory of causality Michael Wilde and Jon Williamson, Philosophy, University of Kent m.e.wilde@kent.ac.uk 8 January 2015 1 / 21 Overview maintains that causality is an epistemic
An abbreviated version of this paper has been presented at the NAIC '98 conference:
ARGUE! - AN IMPLEMENTED SYSTEM FOR COMPUTER-MEDIATED DEFEASIBLE ARGUMENTATION Bart Verheij Department of Metajuridica Universiteit Maastricht P.O. Box 616 6200 MD Maastricht The Netherlands +31 43 3883048
Stout s teleological theory of action
Stout s teleological theory of action Jeff Speaks November 26, 2004 1 The possibility of externalist explanations of action................ 2 1.1 The distinction between externalist and internalist explanations
WHAT LOTTERY PROBLEM FOR RELIABILISM?
1..20 WHAT LOTTERY PROBLEM FOR RELIABILISM? by JUAN COMESAÑA Abstract: It can often be heard in the hallways, and occasionally read in print, that reliabilism runs into special trouble regarding lottery
Epistemological Externalism and the Project of Traditional Epistemology. Contemporary philosophers still haven't come to terms with the project of
Epistemological Externalism and the Project of Traditional Epistemology 1 Epistemological Externalism and the Project of Traditional Epistemology Contemporary philosophers still haven't come to terms with
An Inferentialist Conception of the A Priori. Ralph Wedgwood
An Inferentialist Conception of the A Priori Ralph Wedgwood When philosophers explain the distinction between the a priori and the a posteriori, they usually characterize the a priori negatively, as involving
New Lessons from Old Demons: The Case for Reliabilism
New Lessons from Old Demons: The Case for Reliabilism Thomas Grundmann Our basic view of the world is well-supported. We do not simply happen to have this view but are also equipped with what seem to us
Is There Immediate Justification?
Is There Immediate Justification? I. James Pryor (and Goldman): Yes A. Justification i. I say that you have justification to believe P iff you are in a position where it would be epistemically appropriate
Who Has the Burden of Proof? Must the Christian Provide Adequate Reasons for Christian Beliefs?
Who Has the Burden of Proof? Must the Christian Provide Adequate Reasons for Christian Beliefs? Issue: Who has the burden of proof the Christian believer or the atheist? Whose position requires supporting
Philosophical reflection about what we call knowledge has a natural starting point in the
INTRODUCTION Originally published in: Peter Baumann, Epistemic Contextualism. A Defense, Oxford: Oxford University Press 2016, 1-5. https://global.oup.com/academic/product/epistemic-contextualism-9780198754312?cc=us&lang=en&#
Quine s Naturalized Epistemology, Epistemic Normativity and the. Gettier Problem
Quine s Naturalized Epistemology, Epistemic Normativity and the Gettier Problem Dr. Qilin Li (liqilin@gmail.com; liqilin@pku.edu.cn) The Department of Philosophy, Peking University Beiijing, P. R. China
What s the Matter with Epistemic Circularity? 1
David James Barnett DRAFT: 11.06.13 What s the Matter with Epistemic Circularity? 1 Abstract. If the reliability of a source of testimony is open to question, it seems epistemically illegitimate to verify
Scepticism, Rationalism and Externalism *
Scepticism, Rationalism and Externalism * This paper is about three of the most prominent debates in modern epistemology. The conclusion is that three prima facie appealing positions in these debates cannot
Varieties of Apriority
S E V E N T H E X C U R S U S Varieties of Apriority T he notions of a priori knowledge and justification play a central role in this work. There are many ways in which one can understand the a priori,
ON EPISTEMIC ENTITLEMENT. by Crispin Wright and Martin Davies. II Martin Davies
by Crispin Wright and Martin Davies II Martin Davies EPISTEMIC ENTITLEMENT, WARRANT TRANSMISSION AND EASY KNOWLEDGE ABSTRACT Wright s account of sceptical arguments and his use of the idea of epistemic
A New Parameter for Maintaining Consistency in an Agent's Knowledge Base Using Truth Maintenance System
A New Parameter for Maintaining Consistency in an Agent's Knowledge Base Using Truth Maintenance System Qutaibah Althebyan, Henry Hexmoor Department of Computer Science and Computer Engineering University
Dogmatism and Moorean Reasoning. Markos Valaris University of New South Wales. 1. Introduction
Dogmatism and Moorean Reasoning Markos Valaris University of New South Wales 1. Introduction By inference from her knowledge that past Moscow Januaries have been cold, Mary believes that it will be cold
Objections, Rebuttals and Refutations
Objections, Rebuttals and Refutations DOUGLAS WALTON CRRAR University of Windsor 2500 University Avenue West Windsor, Ontario N9B 3Y1 Canada dwalton@uwindsor.ca ABSTRACT: This paper considers how the terms
Reason and Explanation: A Defense of Explanatory Coherentism. BY TED POSTON (Basingstoke,
Reason and Explanation: A Defense of Explanatory Coherentism. BY TED POSTON (Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave Macmillan, 2014. Pp. 208. Price 60.) In this interesting book, Ted Poston delivers an original and
IN DEFENCE OF CLOSURE
IN DEFENCE OF CLOSURE IN DEFENCE OF CLOSURE By RICHARD FELDMAN Closure principles for epistemic justification hold that one is justified in believing the logical consequences, perhaps of a specified sort,
Can A Priori Justified Belief Be Extended Through Deduction? It is often assumed that if one deduces some proposition p from some premises
Can A Priori Justified Belief Be Extended Through Deduction? Introduction It is often assumed that if one deduces some proposition p from some premises which one knows a priori, in a series of individually
Rationalism of a moderate variety has recently enjoyed the renewed interest of
EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FOR RATIONALISM? [PENULTIMATE DRAFT] Joel Pust University of Delaware 1. Introduction Rationalism of a moderate variety has recently enjoyed the renewed interest of epistemologists.
POLLOCK ON PROBABILITY IN EPISTEMOLOGY. 1. Some Remarks on Pollock s Critique of Bayesian Epistemology
2 BRANDEN FITELSON POLLOCK ON PROBABILITY IN EPISTEMOLOGY BRANDEN FITELSON Abstract. John Pollock has done a lot of interesting and important work on the metaphysics and epistemology of probability over
THE PROBLEM OF INDUCTION: AN EPISTEMOLOGICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL RESPONSE. Alan Robert Rhoda. BA, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, 1993
THE PROBLEM OF INDUCTION: AN EPISTEMOLOGICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL RESPONSE BY Alan Robert Rhoda BA, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, 1993 MA, Fordham University, 1996 DISSERTATION SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT
On the alleged perversity of the evidential view of testimony
700 arnon keren On the alleged perversity of the evidential view of testimony ARNON KEREN 1. My wife tells me that it s raining, and as a result, I now have a reason to believe that it s raining. But what
John Hawthorne s Knowledge and Lotteries
John Hawthorne s Knowledge and Lotteries Chapter 1: Introducing the Puzzle 1.1: A Puzzle 1. S knows that S won t have enough money to go on a safari this year. 2. If S knows that S won t have enough money
The Level-Splitting View and the Non-Akrasia Constraint
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11406-018-0014-6 The Level-Splitting View and the Non-Akrasia Constraint Marco Tiozzo 1 Received: 20 March 2018 / Accepted: 3 August 2018/ # The Author(s) 2018 Abstract Some philosophers
Sensitivity hasn t got a Heterogeneity Problem - a Reply to Melchior
DOI 10.1007/s11406-016-9782-z Sensitivity hasn t got a Heterogeneity Problem - a Reply to Melchior Kevin Wallbridge 1 Received: 3 May 2016 / Revised: 7 September 2016 / Accepted: 17 October 2016 # The
Towards a Formal Account of Reasoning about Evidence: Argumentation Schemes and Generalisations
Towards a Formal Account of Reasoning about Evidence: Argumentation Schemes and Generalisations FLORIS BEX 1, HENRY PRAKKEN 12, CHRIS REED 3 AND DOUGLAS WALTON 4 1 Institute of Information and Computing
RESPECTING THE EVIDENCE. Richard Feldman University of Rochester
Philosophical Perspectives, 19, Epistemology, 2005 RESPECTING THE EVIDENCE Richard Feldman University of Rochester It is widely thought that people do not in general need evidence about the reliability
Foundationalism Vs. Skepticism: The Greater Philosophical Ideology
1. Introduction Ryan C. Smith Philosophy 125W- Final Paper April 24, 2010 Foundationalism Vs. Skepticism: The Greater Philosophical Ideology Throughout this paper, the goal will be to accomplish three