South Consulting - 5th Review Report - Annex Situation Analysis of Post-Election Violence Areas

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1 Seattle University School of Law Seattle University School of Law Digital Commons VII. Academic and Civil Society Analysis The Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission of Kenya South Consulting - 5th Review Report - Annex Situation Analysis of Post-Election Violence Areas Truth, Justice, and Reconciliation Commission Follow this and additional works at: Recommended Citation Truth, Justice, and Reconciliation Commission, "South Consulting - 5th Review Report - Annex Situation Analysis of Post-Election Violence Areas" (2010). VII. Academic and Civil Society Analysis This Report is brought to you for free and open access by the The Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission of Kenya at Seattle University School of Law Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in VII. Academic and Civil Society Analysis by an authorized administrator of Seattle University School of Law Digital Commons. For more information, please contact coteconor@seattleu.edu.

2 Annex 1 A situation analysis of Post- Election Violence Areas (PEV) Summary of survey findings South Consulting January 2010 Post-Election Violence Survey: Methodology 1,500 household interviews ( General column); 450 IDP interviews ( IDP column) [adding both is Total column] Multi-stage cluster sampling proportionate to size Conducted in areas that suffered PEV: hubs in Nairobi, Nakuru, Eldoret, Central Province, Kisumu Random selection of households and respondents (for IDPs, camps) Conducted in November/December 2009 Close-ended and open-ended questions used 1

3 Agenda Item 1 Has violence been halted and fundamental rights restored? Do you think political violence is likely to occur in this area in the next twelve months? 2

4 Who do you think is likely to commit acts of violence? If violence were to occur in this area, what would you do personally in response? IDP General 3

5 If violence were to recur in this area, what would your community do in response, if anything? What are the three most important ways to prevent future violence in Kenya? Prosecute those responsible for violence 19% 26% 17% Promote healing and reconciliation 14% 13% 14% Undertake land reform 11% 17% 9% Fight tribalism 19% 19% 19% Politicians to stop incitement 12% 14% 11% Fighting poverty 7% 3% 8% Fighting unemployment 6% 4% 7% Free and fair election 11% 4% 13% 4

6 To your knowledge, have local armed groups been completely disbanded or demobilized in your area? IDP General To your knowledge are there new armed groups that have formed in the last one year? 5

7 If yes, please name the most common Sample Mungiki 39% 34% 41% Kisungusungu 11% 0% 14% Chingororo 10% 0% 13% Taliban 9% 17% 6% Kalenjin warriors 8% 23% 2% Don't know 8% 6% 8% SLDF 7% 0% 9% Vigilantes 2% 6% 0% Thai 2% 0% 2% Jeshi la Mzee 1% 3% 0% The Morans 1% 3% 0% The chief squad 1% 0% 1% Boys of Karamojong 1% 0% 1% Saba Saba 1% 0% 1% Kamwaura-Kikuyus 1% 3% 0% Kipsigis youth worriors 1% 3% 0% Refused 1% 3% 0% If yes, what weapons do you think these groups will use if they attack? Sample Pangas 28% 28% 29% Bows/Arrows 18% 26% 16% Pistols 13% 10% 14% Club(Rungu) 13% 7% 15% Axes 9% 5% 11% Don t know 6% 8% 6% Knives 4% 8% 2% Spears/Mkuki 4% 2% 5% Swords 2% 2% 2% Matches 1% 5% 0% Stones 0% 0% 1% 6

8 What is the best way to disband and demobilize armed groups in Kenya? IDP General In your opinion, who do you think finances armed groups? Politicians 46% 42% 47% Business people 17% 23% 15% Self financing by groups 15% 17% 15% Don't know 12% 13% 11% Ordinary citizens 4% 2% 5% Community elders 3% 3% 4% Government 2% 0% 2% None 1% 0% 1% 7

9 Have the police done an excellent, good, just fair, or poor jobs protecting the rights of Kenyans within the last three months? Agenda Item 2 Has the humanitarian crisis been resolved and reconciliation promoted? 8

10 What type of activities have been pursued to promote healing and reconciliation in your area? There was no post election violence in my area 22% 3% 29% Peace meetings with community representatives 20% 22% 19% Religious crusades 15% 17% 14% Peace committees 9% 8% 9% Awareness creation 9% 13% 7% None 8% 12% 7% Peace training workshops 6% 9% 5% Women's initiatives 5% 9% 3% Sports and games 4% 3% 5% Counselling services 3% 5% 2% Don t know 1% 1% 1% How successful are the efforts at promoting healing and reconciliation among communities in your area? 9

11 What are the most important challenges to healing and reconciliation efforts in your area? Political statements 21% 24% 20% Mistrust between ethnic groups 20% 21% 19% Tribalism 24% 25% 24% People who committed the violence are still free 8% 9% 8% Land disputes 13% 11% 14% Lack of involvement by community members 7% 4% 9% People are too hurt and traumatized 5% 4% 5% Which of the following do you think has the greatest influence at promoting healing and reconciliation among groups in Kenya? Politicians 40% 45% 39% Religious leaders 38% 37% 38% CSOs/NGOs 10% 7% 10% Provincial administration 6% 4% 7% Women's Groups 3% 3% 3% Don t know 2% 3% 1% Village elders 1% 0% 1% 10

12 Thinking about reconciliation among Kenyan communities after the post-election violence, how much would you say communities have reconciled? Were there any people displaced from their homes in your area during the post-election violence? 11

13 If yes, have those people mostly been resettled in this area, do they mostly stay in IDP camps, or have they relocated to other areas? Nairobi Central Nakuru Eldoret Kisumu Mostly resettled in this area 39% 11% 60% 32% 45% 19% 46% 80% Mostly in IDP camps 37% 78% 7% 11% 11% 70% 9% 6% Relocated to other areas 22% 9% 32% 57% 43% 11% 43% 13% Don t know 1% 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 3% 1% In your opinion, what is the most important reason IDPs remain in camps? Nairobi Central Nakuru Eldoret Kisumu Fear of attacks 39% 45% 37% 43% 48% 42% 35% 34% They lack land 37% 43% 35% 43% 32% 39% 28% 40% Awaiting funds 16% 11% 18% 8% 13% 15% 21% 17% IDPs are not genuine 6% 0% 7% 2% 4% 3% 12% 6% Don t know 2% 1% 2% 4% 3% 1% 2% 2% 12

14 In your opinion, what is the most important concern for IDPs that have been relocated to other areas? Nairobi Central Nakuru Eldoret Kisumu Land 22% 17% 24% 22% 13% 21% 18% 29% Security 21% 27% 20% 25% 22% 27% 17% 19% Livelihood ('Mapato') 18% 20% 18% 22% 25% 15% 20% 16% Food 15% 22% 12% 4% 20% 23% 7% 10% Shelter 10% 8% 11% 14% 10% 7% 21% 8% Resettle them where they are 7% 5% 8% 4% 7% 3% 5% 11% Healing and reconciliation 4% 1% 5% 8% 2% 4% 6% 4% Don t know 2% 1% 2% 0% 1% 0% 6% 2% What is the most important thing the government can do to address the problem of people displaced by postelection violence in Kenya? Give them land 39% 54% 35% Give them financial assistance 18% 21% 17% Take them back to their ancestral districts 11% 3% 14% Increase security 11% 9% 11% Resettle them here 10% 6% 11% Promote peace and reconciliation 10% 6% 12% 13

15 What is the nature of the relationship between IDPs and the other people in your area? Nairobi Central Nakuru Eldoret Kisumu They get along well 47% 84% 36% 57% 67% 70% 32% 28% There are no IDPs in my area 39% 0% 50% 20% 23% 10% 46% 62% There is tension but no fighting 11% 12% 11% 10% 8% 15% 18% 7% There are threats made against IDPs 1% 2% 1% 8% 1% 3% 1% 1% Fighting sometimes occurs 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% Don t know 1% 1% 1% 6% 1% 0% 3% 1% [IDPs only] In the last six months, did any of the following give you any assistance? 14

16 [IDPs only]: What are the most important problems that you face as an IDP? What activities are IDP youth engaged in? 15

17 What are the challenges encountered in allocation of land to IDPs? Inadequate resources 33% 26% 34% Corruption 24% 21% 25% Discrimination against some IDPs 16% 12% 17% Don t know 13% 22% 11% Political interference 5% 4% 6% Others 4% 10% 3% Hostility against IDPs 2% 1% 3% None 2% 3% 1% What are the most important permanent solutions to IDP problems? Promote healing and reconciliation 39% 49% 36% Give them land 26% 30% 25% Give them financial assistance 18% 16% 19% End impunity 7% 3% 8% Others 6% 1% 7% Don t know 2% 0% 2% Have an IDP policy 1% 0% 2% 16

18 The government has given land to some IDPs. Do you support these efforts as part of government resettlement of IDPs? Do you think displaced squatters, hawkers and traders should be considered as IDPs? 17

19 Agenda Item 3 Is power being shared between Coalition partners and how is government performing? Do you think coalition government works well together? Work well 28% 24% 30% Do not work well together 69% 73% 68% Don t know 2% 3% 2% 18

20 What can the coalition government do to work together better? Create unity and trust between parties 57% 64% 55% Individuals to stop fighting for power 17% 15% 17% Concentrate on development 13% 8% 14% Have clear roles and responsibilities within the coalition 8% 5% 9% Other 3% 4% 3% Don't Know 2% 4% 2% Nothing 1% 1% 1% How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the working relationship between President Kibaki and Prime Minister Odinga? 19

21 Do you think Prime Minister Odinga is exercising his powers of office? Are you satisfied/dissatisfied about the performance of Coalition Government Parliament 20

22 Agenda Item 4 Long-standing Issues What must the coalition government do to address land problems in your area? Enforce land laws to settle disputes 40% 45% 38% Give land to the landless 23% 25% 22% Other 9% 8% 9% Nothing 8% 5% 9% Don't know 7% 7% 7% Reposses illegally acquired land 6% 7% 6% Enhance role of local land boards 6% 2% 8% Communities should own land only in their ancestral land 1% 1% 1% 21

23 Do you think it is likely that the coalition government will make a new constitution by the end of March 2010? Do you think this new constitution will be satisfactory or unsatisfactory in addressing the needs of most Kenyans? 22

24 If a referendum were held next year, would you turn out to vote? If the draft constitution was to be rejected in a referendum which of the following would you recommend? Minimum changes to the current constitution 49% 52% 48% Restart the review process 16% 14% 17% Immediately hold general elections 15% 9% 17% Forget about a new constitution 12% 15% 11% Don't know 7% 9% 6% I do not support the referrendum 1% 0% 1% 23

25 Please list three things that you think need to be included in a new constitution to be satisfactory in addressing the needs of most Kenyans? More rights to be protected 25% 27% 24% Measure to distribute resources 25% 32% 22% Other 25% 21% 25% Measures to create more jobs 7% 6% 7% Don't know 5% 7% 4% Majimbo 4% 1% 5% Strengthening the prime minister 3% 0% 4% Strengthening parliament 3% 2% 3% None 3% 2% 3% Decreasing powers of the president 2% 3% 2% Please tell me three important reasons why corruption continues in Kenya? 24

26 What are the two main issues that the youth in this area complain about? Unemployment 48% 49% 48% Poverty 20% 20% 20% Education 11% 14% 10% Poor pay 7% 4% 7% Drug abuse 6% 4% 6% Insecurity 4% 6% 4% Acts of violence 1% 0% 1% Should those individuals responsible for post-election violence be tried through a local tribunal/ international community in the Hague or both? 25

27 If a senior politician from yourcommunity is put on trial for inciting post-election violence, how will you personally react? If a senior politician from yourcommunity is put on trial for inciting post election violence, how will members of your community react? Nairobi Central Nakuru Eldoret Kisumu They will engage in acts of violence against other communities 5% 1% 7% 4% 2% 2% 6% 9% They will demonstrate against the trial 19% 7% 22% 24% 18% 9% 24% 24% They will support the trial 49% 69% 44% 51% 50% 70% 39% 40% They will do nothing 21% 19% 21% 16% 26% 16% 24% 20% Don t know 5% 4% 5% 6% 4% 3% 4% 7% 26

28 If a senior politician from anothercommunity is put on trial for inciting post-election violence, how will you personally react? If a senior politician from anothercommunity is put on trial for inciting post election violence, how will members of your community react? Nairobi Central Nakuru Eldoret Kisumu They will engage in acts of violence against other communities 2% 0% 2% 4% 1% 0% 2% 2% They will demonstrate against the trial 7% 1% 9% 0% 5% 3% 10% 10% They will support the trial 56% 78% 50% 65% 60% 77% 41% 46% They will do nothing 29% 18% 32% 25% 30% 17% 39% 33% Don t know 6% 3% 7% 6% 3% 3% 7% 9% 27

29 In your opinion, do you think that prosecuting individuals responsible for post-election violence now will prevent violence in Kenya's next general election? Will you participate in the Truth Justice and Reconciliation Commission (TJRC)? 28

30 Please tell me the two things you dislike the most about the coalition government? Slow pace of reforms 36% 41% 34% Corruption 25% 27% 25% Culture of impunity 23% 16% 25% Political disputes 6% 7% 6% MPs refusal to pay taxes 5% 5% 5% None 3% 2% 4% Refused 1% 1% 0% Please tell me the two things you like the most about the coalition government? Creation of peace and reconciliation 53% 43% 56% None 17% 32% 13% Others 15% 14% 15% Delivery of services 8% 3% 10% Creating employment 3% 2% 3% Don t know 1% 5% 0% Enhancing rights and freedoms 1% 0% 2% Refused to answer 1% 2% 0% 29

31 Do you prefer that the Coalition government continues until 2012, or do you prefer that the country holds general elections before 2012? Please tell me whether you will vote in the next general elections? 30

Côte d Ivoire National Public Opinion Survey

Côte d Ivoire National Public Opinion Survey April 20-30, 2015 International Republican Institute Detailed Methodology The International Republican Institute carried out a survey of adult residents of