The Demise of Institutional Religion?

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1 The Demise of Institutional Religion? Association of Theological Schools San Antonio, TX January 29, 2013 Luis Lugo Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life Washington, D.C.

2 I Long-Term Trends in Religious Affiliation 100% Protestant Catholic None Source: General Social Surveys, Other religious affiliations and those who did not give an answer are not shown. 1

3 Declining Share Are Protestant 60% White evangelical White mainline 10 Black Protestant 0 Other minority Protestant Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press,

4 Growth of the Religiously Unaffiliated 25% Nothing in particular 10 5 Agnostic 0 Atheist Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007-July

5 Growth in Religious Disaffiliation, by Demographic Groups Change % who describe themselves as religiously unaffiliated among % % U.S. general public Men Women College grad Some college or less $75, $30,000-$74, <$30, Northeast Midwest South West Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007 and Changes that are statistically significant are shown in bold. 4

6 Growth in Religious Disaffiliation, by Demographic Groups Change % who describe themselves as religiously unaffiliated among % % U.S. general public White Black Hispanic Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007 and Hispanic figures based only on surveys that included Spanish interviewing. Changes that are statistically significant are shown in bold. 5

7 Religious Switching: Recruitment % who were raised in Same religion Different religion Don't know Current religion Protestant Catholic Unaffiliated Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9,

8 Religious Switching: Retention Childhood religion % who are currently Same religion Different religion Unaffiliated Don't know Protestant Catholic Unaffiliated Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9,

9 II Importance of Religion Very Somewhat General public 58% 22% Unaffiliated Atheist/Agnosti c 2 14 Nothing in particular Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. 8

10 Composition of the Unaffiliated Atheist 29% 12% Nothing in particular 71% Religious unaffiliated Agnostic 16% Religiously indifferent 42% Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. 9

11 A Closer Look at the Nothing in Particulars All NiPs Religious Unaffiliated Religiously Indifferent Identify as a religious person Believe in God, abs olutely certain Pray daily or more Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9,

12 Identity as a Spiritual or Religious Person Religious Spiritual only Neither Affiliated Unaffiliated Atheist/Agnostic Nothing in particular Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, Q50. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. Pew Research Center 11

13 Believe in God or Universal Spirit? Yes, absolutely certain Yes, but less certain Net Affiliated 77% 20% 97 Unaffiliated Atheist/Agnosti c Nothing in particular Source: Pew Research Center/Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly survey, June 28-July 9, Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. 12

14 Frequency of Prayer Daily Weekly/monthly Affiliated 66% 22% Unaffiliated Atheist/Agnosti c 6 11 Nothing in particular Source: Pew Research Center/Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly survey, June 28-July 9, Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. 13

15 Frequency of Worship Attendance Weekly Monthly/ Yearly Seldom/ Never DK N % % % % U.S. general public = ,010 Affiliated = ,821 Christian = ,086 Protestant = 100 7,316 White evangelical = 100 3,473 White mainline * = 100 3,035 Black Protestant = 100 1,319 Catholic = 100 3,692 White Catholic * = 100 2,546 Hispanic Catholic = Unaffiliated = 100 2,942 Atheist/Agnostic = Nothing in particular = 100 2,034 Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, January-July Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. 14

16 Other Spiritual Beliefs % saying they believe in each of the following Spiritual energy located in physical things such as mountains, trees and crystals Unaffiliated Affiliated Christian % % % Yoga, not just as exercise, but as a spiritual practice Reincarnation, that people will be reborn again and again Astrology, that the position of stars/planets can affect people s lives Evil eye, that certain people can cast curses or spells that cause harm Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life, August Q291a-c,e,f. Other responses and those who did not give an answer are not shown. Pew Research Center 15

17 Supernatural Experiences Unaffiliated Affiliated % saying they have experienced each of the following: % % Been in touch with someone who has already died Religious or mystical experiences Seen or been in the presence of a ghost Consulted a fortuneteller or psychic Source: Pew Research Center for the People & the Press and Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life survey, August Q292a-c;Q290. Other responses and those who did not give an answer are not shown. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 16

18 Reflecting on the Meaning of Life How often, if at all, do you think about the meaning and purpose of life? Often Sometimes Rarely /never DK % % % % Affiliated =100 Christian = 100 Protestant = 100 White evangelical = 100 White mainline * = 100 Black Protestant = 100 Catholic = 100 White Catholic * = 100 Hispanic Catholic = 100 Unaffiliated = 100 Atheist/Agnostic * = 100 Nothing in particular = 100 Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, Q21a. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. Pew Research Center 17

19 Looking for a Religion? Nothing in particular % of nothing in particulars who are % Looking for religion that is right for them 10 Not doing this 88 Don t know Source: Pew Research Center/Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly survey, June 28-July 9,

20 III Religious Affiliation by Age Unaffiliated Affiliated Don't know/refused Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, January-July

21 Life-Cycle Effect on Affiliation % unaffiliated with a religion, by generation Source: General Social Surveys. 20

22 Importance of Religion % saying religion is very important in their lives, by generation Source: Gallup Surveys. 21

23 Daily Prayer % saying they pray daily, by generation Source: General Social Surveys. 22

24 Attendance at Religious Services % saying they attend several times a week, every week or nearly every week, by generation Source: General Social Surveys. 23

25 Trends in Disaffiliation, by Religious Attendance % of each attendance category that is unaffiliated 60% 50 Seldom/never attend Attend monthly/yearly 13 Attend weekly or more Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press,

26 Liminal Nones % of liminal nones in various religious traditions Source: Chaeyoon Lim, Carol Ann MacGregor, and Robert Putnam, Secular and Liminal: Discovering Heterogeneity Among Religious Nones, Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion, Volume 49, Number 4, December

27 IV Views About Churches and Religious Organizations % saying they agree that churches and other religious organizations do each of the following Unaffiliated Affiliated Are too concerned with money and power Focus too much on rules Are too involved with politics Bring people together and strengthen community bonds Play important role helping poor and needy Protect and strengthen morality Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, Q73a-g. Those saying disagree and those who did not give an answer are not shown. 26

28 Views on Religion and Politics General public Unaffiliated Important for a president to have strong religious beliefs 32% 67% Churches should keep out of political matters Churches should not endorse candidates Sources: Data on president s religious beliefs and churches endorsing candidates comes from Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, Data on church involvement in political matters comes from Pew Research Center survey, March

29 (2) Wealth and Religious Commitment 3.00 Africa Kuwait 2.50 North America Religious Commitment Score Mexico East Europe Israel Canada U.S. West Europe East Europe Latin America Middle East Asia 0.50 Africa ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 Per Capita GDP (Standardized) West Europe This chart has been reprinted from World Publics Welcome Global Trade But Not Immigration, Pew Global Attitudes Project,

30 Religion is Very Important to Me N. America U.S. 56% Canada 29 W. Europe Germany Italy G. Britain 17 France 12 E. Europe Poland 25 Ukraine Slovakia Russia Bulgaria Czech Republic 7 Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project Surveys

31 Religion is Very Important to Me % N. America W. Europe E. Europe Latin America Asia Africa Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project Surveys , Pew Forum Sub-Saharan Africa Survey

32 The Churching of America Rates of Religious Adherence Source: Roger Finke and Rodney Stark, The Churching of America : Winners and Losers in Our Religious Economy,

33 Influence of Religion on Society % saying religion as a whole is its influence on American life Increasing Losing Same (vol.) DK % % % % U.S. general public = 100 Unaffiliated = 100 Atheist/Agnostic = 100 Nothing in particular = 100 Affiliated = 100 Christian = 100 Protestant = 100 White evangelical = 100 White mainline = 100 Black Protestant = 100 Catholic = 100 White Catholic = 100 Hispanic Catholic = 100 Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, Q42. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Figures may not add to 100% due to rounding. Pew Research Center 32

34 Declining Share Say They Never Doubt the Existence of God 100 % Agree that "I never doubt the existence of God." Disagree Source: Surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press,

35 Religious Attendance of U.S. Adults, % Weekly or more Monthly/Yearly Seldom/Never Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press,

36 Importance of Religion, % who say religion is very important Source: Surveys conducted by Gallup,

37 Importance of Prayer, Do you agree or disagree that prayer is an important part of your daily life? Agree Disagree Source: Surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press,

38 (3) Religious Disaffiliation by Demographic Groups Change % who describe themselves as religiously unaffiliated among % % U.S. general public White Black Hispanic Married Not married Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, 2007 and Hispanic figures based only on surveys that included Spanish interviewing. Changes that are statistically significant are shown in bold. 37

39 Marital Status of Religious Groups Married Living with partner Divorced/ Separated/Widowed Never married % % % % U.S. general public = 100 Affiliated = 100 Christian = 100 Protestant = 100 White evangelical = 100 White mainline = 100 Black Protestant = 100 Catholic = 100 White Catholic = 100 Hispanic Catholic = 100 Unaffiliated = 100 Atheist/agnostic = 100 Nothing in particular = 100 Source: Aggregated data from surveys conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, January - July Results repercentaged to exclude nonresponse. White and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. Pew Research Center 38

40 Current Marital Status, % Note: Based on adults ages 18 and older. Percents may not total 100% due to rounding. Source: Pew Research Center s Social and Demographic Trends analysis of Decennial Census ( ) and American Community Survey data (2008, 2010), IPUMS. 39

41 Median Age at First Marriage, Source: Pew Research Center s Social and Demographic Trends analysis of Current Population Survey, March and Annual Social and Economic Supplements. 40

42 Trend in Party Identification: Democrat Republican Independent Source: yearly averages from the Gallup Organization interactive website yearly totals from Times Mirror/Pew Research Center aggregate files. Based on general public. Independent data not available for

43 Partisan Profile of Nonvoters All adults Likely voters Nonvoters Party ID % % % Republican Democrat Independent Source: Pew Research Center poll conducted October 24-28, Nonvoters include all unregistered adults as well as registered voters who do not meet the criteria for likely voters used in Pew Research Center polls. 42

44 Rise and Decline of League Bowling Source: Robert D. Putnam, Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community,

45 Other Organizations to Which Religiously Active Americans Belong Those who are active in religious groups Those who aren t active in such groups Sports or recreation leagues 35% 17% Charitable or volunteer organizations Professional or trade associations Political parties or organizations Alumni associations Performance arts groups 19 5 Literary, discussion, or study groups 18 6 Veterans organizations 11 4 Sports fantasy leagues 8 6 Farm organizations 7 2 Source: Pew Internet & American Life Project, 2011 The civic and community engagement of religiously active Americans, p

46 Confidence in Institutions, % saying they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence Question wording: Now I am going to read you a list of institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself, have in each one a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very little? Note: Data not available for Congress in Source: Gallup New Service Survey, conducted June 9-12, Based telephone interviews of a national sample of 1,020 adults.

47 Confidence in the Church/Organized Religion % saying they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence Question wording: Now I am going to read you a list of institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence you, yourself, have in each one a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very little? Source: Gallup New Service Survey, conducted June 7-10, Based telephone interviews of a national sample of 1,004 adults. 46

48 Importance of Shared Community % saying belonging to a community of people who share your values and beliefs is Very important Somewhat important Not too/not at all important U.S. general public Black Protestant Hispanic Catholic White evangelical White Catholic White mainline Unaffiliated Source: Pew Research Center survey, June 28-July 9, Q22 Those who did not give an answer are not shown. Whites and blacks include only those who are not Hispanic; Hispanics are of any race. PEW RESEARCH CENTER 47

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