Ensemble forecasting for Sochi-2014 Olympics: the COSMO-based ensemble systems
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1 Ensemble forecasting for Sochi-2014 Olympics: the COSMO-based ensemble systems Andrea Montani, D. Alferov, E. Astakhova, C. Marsigli, T. Paccagnella ARPA Emilia-Romagna Servizio IdroMeteoClima, Bologna, Italy Roshydromet, Moscow, Russia 13 th EMS Annual Meeting & 11 th ECAM NWP4 - Probabilistic and ensemble forecasting at short and medium-range Reading 13 September 2013
2 Outline Introduction to 2014 Winter Olympic Games: FROST-2014 project. Limited-area ensemble activities for FROST-2014: relocation of COSMO-LEPS: COSMO-S14-EPS; development of COSMO-RU2-EPS. Performance of COSMO-S14-EPS and COSMO-RU2-EPS: case-study assessment; Conclusions and plans. A.Montani; The COSMO-S14-EPS system.
3 Introduction to 2014 Winter Olympic Games Next Olympics and Paralympics Winter Games will take place in Sochi, Russia (7-23 February and 7-16 March 2014). Roshydromet (Russian Met Service) organized a blended RDP/FDP (Research and Development Project / Forecast Demonstration Project) under the auspices of WMO: FROST-2014 (Forecasting and Research: the Olympic Sochi Testbed). Russia is a COSMO country COSMO initiatives set-up within FROST-2014: a) deterministic forecasting (development of 1-km modelling), b) probabilistic forecasting: b1) FDP initiatives (relocate COSMO-LEPS over the Sochi area: COSMO-S14-EPS), b2) RDP initiatives (develop a convective-scale ensemble system for the Sochi area: COSMO-RU2-EPS), c) post-processing and product generation, d) verification (development of VERSUS software for probabilistic verification). A. Montani. - COSMO-S14-EPS
4 Outline Limited-area ensemble activities for FROST-2014: relocation of COSMO-LEPS: COSMO-S14-EPS. development of COSMO-RU2-EPS. A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system.
5 ECMWF: present status runs on a daily basis d d+1 d+2 d+3 4 variables Z U V Q 3 levels hpa ECMWF EPS Cluster Analysis and RM identification 2 time Black-Sea Complete steps area Linkage Integration Domain Δx ~ 7 km; 40 ML; fc+72h; initial time: 00/12 UTC; computer time (~ 4.5 million BUs for 2013) is provided by an ECMWF Special Project; contributions from ECMWF member states were needed to run the system all year on a daily basis; suite managed by ARPA-SIMC; A.Montani; The COSMO-S14-EPS system
6 Development of COSMO-RU2-EPS COSMO-RU2-EPS COSMO-S14-EPS A.Montani; The COSMO-S14-EPS system
7 COSMO-S14-EPS and COSMO-RU2-EPS: present status ECMWF-EPS COSMO-S14-EPS COSMO-RU2-EPS ECMWF EPS COSMO-S14-EPS (run at ECMWF) COSMO-RU2-EPS (run at Roshydromet) Horizontal resolution (km) ~ Vertical resolution (ML) Forecast range (h) Ensemble size Starting times (UTC) 00/12 00/12 00/12 Initial and boundary conditions Model perturbations Singular-vector initial perturbations + Ensemble Data Assimilation Stochastic physical tendencies and backscatter Interpolated from selected members of ECMWF EPS Perturbations to the physical parameterizations Interpolated from COSMO- S14-EPS Type of convection Parameterised A.Montani; The COSMO-S14-EPS Parameterised system Resolved
8 Outline Performance of COSMO-S14-EPS and COSMO-RU2-EPS: case-study assessment; A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system
9 Case-study assessment 1. Heavy-precipitation event on 13 Jan 2013: 21 mm of rain during the day on the coast (Sochi/Adler) and 33 mm of snowwater equivalent during the day in the mountain (Krasnaya Polyana); A.Montani: The COSMO-S14-EPS system
10 Case-study assessment mountain cluster coastal cluster The fields of the next slides were operationally delivered to FROST-server A.Montani: The COSMO-S14-EPS system
11 COSMO-S14-EPS: heavy precipitation event (2) runs start at 12UTC of 11/1/2013 and verify at 12UTC of 13/1/2013 (fc+36-48h) tpp12h_gt_20mm OBS: 21 mm of rain during the day on the coast (Sochi/Adler) and 33 mm of snow-water equivalent during the day in the mountain (Krasnaya Polyana) rain12h_gt_20mm A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system. sfp12h_gt_15cm
12 COSMO-S14-EPS: Heavy precipitation event (3) runs start at 00UTC of 12/1/2013 and verify at 12UTC of 13/1/2013 (fc+24-36h) tpp12h_gt_20mm OBS: 21 mm of rain during the day on the coast (Sochi/Adler) and 33 mm of snow-water equivalent during the day in the mountain (Krasnaya Polyana) rain12h_gt_20mm A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system. sfp12h_gt_15cm
13 COSMO-S14-EPS vs COSMO-RU2-EPS Fix both the event (probability of 12h snowfall exceeding 15 cm) and verification time (12UTC of ): consider the performance of both systems at two forecast ranges. A.Montani; The COSMO-S14-EPS system.
14 Outline Conclusions and plans. A.Montani; The COSMO-S14-EPS system.
15 Conclusions... The new COSMO-based ensemble systems over the Sochi-area (COSMO-S14-EPS and COSMO-RU2-EPS) were implemented and are running on an operational/quasioperational basis. Both COSMO-S14-EPS and COSMO-RU2-EPS are able to capture the possible occurrence of intense and localised weather events in the Olympic venues, a few days in advance. First verification results for past winter indicate good performance on a case-study analysis: consistent prediction of heavy precipitation (rain + snow) episodes. COSMO-RU2-EPS seems to provide some added value. A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system.
16 ... and plans Survive ECMWF upgrades until March 2014 (increase of vertical resolution, change of member-state server, change of super-computer). Develop new products on demand : in the next weeks, multi-model ensemble products (including COSMO-S14-EPS, GLAMEPS, ALADIN-LAEF) will be tested. Use good-quality observations at high resolution (and there are) to perform statistical verification. Quantify the added value of higher resolution in COSMO-RU2-EPS forecasts. To what extent are forecasters using COSMO-ensemble products? How to strengthen links between forecasters and ensemble developers? next October, training with forecasters in Sochi A.Montani; The COSMO-LEPS system.
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