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1 OSMO-R, a.bundel@gmail.com muravev@mecom.ru Gdaly.Rivin@mecom.ru, inna@mecom.ru ( ) ( ).... (neighborhood verification). 37
2 . COSMO-Ru /2013. COSMO-Ru 3 NMM. ERS S ( ERification System nified Survey) - COSMO.,. +5 C +15 C. HARMONIE ~ HARMONIE. FROST-2014 (Forecast and Research in the Olympic Sochi Testbed). COSMO-Ru1 4 ASTER
3 ). 1 (ME) - (RMSE) COSMO-Ru1 COSMO-Ru2 ( ) COSMO-Ru1 COSMO-Ru (. 1 ) COSMO-Ru1. RMSE COSMO-Ru1. COSMO-Ru1 COSMO-Ru2 (. 1 ). (.. )
4 /3.. (. 2 ) 1 /3 (. 2 ) COSMO-Ru1 COSMO-Ru2 : 15. ) ) 40
5 ). 1. ME) RMSE) COSMO-Ru1 ) COSMO-Ru2 ) ) COSMO-Ru1 2 ), ), ), ). 06. ) 41
6 ) , 0,01 3 ) 1 3 ), COSMO-Ru1 ) COSMO-Ru2 ) ) 15 ). 00. ) 42
7 10 / : ( COSMO-Ru2 COSMO-Ru1 ). COSMO-Ru2 COSMO-Ru1 ( 15 ). - (neighborhood verification ( ) - -..) 5 7. ERS S (performance diagrams) (1 ) ( - ) ( ). :.. 3 COSMO-Ru2 (. 3 ) COSMO-Ru1 (. 3 ) COSMO-Ru1 COSMO-Ru ME RMSE 2 COSMO-Ru1 COSMO-Ru
8 ) ). 3. COSMO-Ru2 ) COSMO-Ru1 ) 3-, 0,
9 ) 600 6)
10 ) 1500 ) ME RMSE 2 COSMO-Ru1 ) COSMO-Ru2 ) 600 ), 1000 ), 1500 ) 2000 )
11 , RASNA A OL ANA --- LAT: LON:40.2 HEI HT: ordon Laura (Roshydromet) --- LAT:43.7 LON: HEI HT: Sledge LAT: LON: HEI HT: Nordic LAT: LON: HEI HT: Nordic LAT: LON: HEI HT: S i ump LAT: LON:40.24 HEI HT: Snowboard-1025 (IRAM) --- LAT: LON: HEI HT: Freestyle-1080 (IRAM) --- LAT: LON: HEI HT: R H -7 (Finish) ---LAT: LON: HEI HT: MCarousel LAT: LON: HEI HT: R H LAT: LON: HEI HT: Alpica-Service-1500(Roshydromet)--- LAT: LON: HEI HT: iathlon LAT: LON: HEI HT: iathlon Stadium ---LAT: LON: HEI HT: S i Stadium ---LAT: LON: HEI HT: iathlon LAT: LON: HEI HT: MCarousel LAT: LON: HEI HT: R H 2 ---LAT:43.63 LON: HEI HT: R H LAT: LON: HEI HT: R H LAT: LON: HEI HT:1740 ( ) COSMO-Ru1 COSMO-Ru2. 47
12 COSMO-Ru1 COSMO-Ru2. ERS S COSMO-Ru ( <25 ) ( >75 ) COSMO-Ru1, 1200, <25, ) >75, )
13 , EDI /2012. COSMO-Ru2 2012/ / MET 8. R (extreme dependency score (EDS) stable extreme dependency score (SEDS) extremal dependency index (EDI) and symmetric extremal dependency index (SEDI)) 6 EDS SEDS EDS. 9 EDI
14 EDI.. 6 EDI - ( ) COSMO-Ru2 2 2 NMM 1 ( COSMO). :. -. EDI : 2012/2013. COSMO-Ru2 NMM NMM. 1 / 10 2 / COSMO- Ru2 EDI COSMO-Ru2-9 COSMO-Ru2 NMM
15 ) ) ) ). 6. EDI ), - ), ), ), COSMO-Ru2,,, ) NMM, ). 51
16 COSMO-Ru COSMO-Ru COSMO-Ru1 COSMO-Ru2 COSMO-Ru1 RMSE ME ME COSMO-Ru1 COSMO-Ru : COSMO-Ru2 COSMO-Ru
17 -. 4. ( ) ( ) EDI ( ). EDI : COSMO-Ru2 NMM NMM. - COSMO-Ru2 EDI COSMO-Ru2-9 COSMO-Ru2 NMM. COSMO-Ru I. COSMO // II. COSMO //
18 COSMO-Ru / : : COSMO-Ru1: // Fuzzy verification of high resolution gridded forecasts: review and proposed framewor // Meteor. Appl ol doi: /met D.B. Extremal Dependence Indices: improved verification measures for deterministic forecasts of rare binary events // Wea. Forecasting ol erifying Forecasts Spatially // ull. Amer. Meteor. Soc ol doi: AMS MET: Model Evaluation Tools ersion 4.0 (METv4.0). ser s uide / Developmental Testbed Center 2012 oulder Colorado SA ( 9. Suggested methods for the verification of precipitation forecasts against high resolution limited area observations / W F R Second Draft November
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